The Manley panel's report will recommend that Canadian soldiers remain in Afghanistan to train the Afghan army and police, but only if NATO provides more troops and equipment, 麻豆影视 has learned.

The panel, headed by former Liberal cabinet minister John Manley, will give its report to Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Tuesday.

Sources have told 麻豆影视 that the panel will recommend NATO put another 1,000 soldiers on the ground in Kandahar and supply mid-range transport helicopters and more light-armoured vehicles.

"Manley is telling the prime minister that if NATO won't provide these troops and equipment, then Canada should withdraw from Afghanistan," reported CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife.

The panel is also expected to advise the government that soldiers should stay beyond 2009 to train the Afghan army and police outside Kandahar Airfield -- even if that means engaging the Taliban.

Fife said the prime minister will likely put a resolution on the report before Parliament in either February or March, ahead of an important NATO meeting in April, so he can act on they panel's advice.

It's also expected that the panel will include the following blunt assessment of operations in Afghanistan:

  • CIDA and Foreign Affairs have poorly co-ordinated the delivery of aid;
  • The insurgency is spreading and suicide blasts have risen eight-fold since 2006;
  • Record opium production now counts for 93 per cent of the world's supply; and,
  • Afghanistan is run by a weak and corrupt government.

The Liberals, the largest opposition party, have said they want to see Canada's combat role end in 2009, with the mission shifting to training Afghan security forces and development -- preferably within the relative safety of Kandahar Airfield.

The Bloc Quebecois wants to see the combat role by 2009, and the NDP has argued the troops should come home now.

Concern about the Afghan mission extends to Washington and Brussels, not just Ottawa.

In mid-December, the New York Times reported that three separate reviews were taking place within the Bush administration and NATO.

One would focus on the counterinsurgency fight, the other on "soft power" issues like development, and a third on NATO's overall strategy.

One advance has been the nomination of veteran British diplomat Paddy Ashdown as the UN-appointed envoy to Afghanistan. His job would be to co-ordinate the international effort between NATO, the European Union and the Afghan government.

However, the government of President Hamid Karzai is reportedly resistant to Ashdown's appointment, saying it wants clarification of his powers.

When he announced the five-member panel in October, Harper set out four options:

  • Continue training the Afghan army and police with the goal of creating a self-sufficient indigenous security force in Kandahar province so that Canadian troops can withdraw in February 2009;
  • Focus on reconstruction work in Kandahar, which would require other countries to take over security role;
  • Shift Canadian security and reconstruction efforts to another region in Afghanistan; and
  • Withdraw all Canadian military forces after February 2009 except for small contingent to provide security for aid workers and diplomats.