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The expected recommendations of a forthcoming report on fighting global climate change are at odds with parts of the new Conservative government's policy.

The chief conclusion of the report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change coming Friday -- of which a draft copy was obtained by Â鶹ӰÊÓ -- is that tough regulations and steep fines will be required to stop dangerous climate change.

One leading Canadian thinker on climate change policy said the Conservatives' policies are too weak to do so.

"The Eco-Efficiency, EcoEnergy initiatives of the Conservatives, including their most recent air emission regulation proposals, don't go nearly far enough in getting the correct signal into our economy," said economist Mark Jaccard of B.C.'s Simon Fraser University.

Jaccard is a critic of the Kyoto Protocol as a tool for fighting the human-caused greenhouse gas emissions that are behind the Earth's changing climate.

However, he gives the new plan of Environment Minister John Baird a failing grade.

"The Conservative regulations seem to be full of loopholes in my view and so were the Liberals before them," he said.

Baird's parliamentary secretary rejects Jaccard's claim. "We've achieved a balance and we will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020. We are going to get it done," said B.C. MP Mark Warawa.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada agreed to cut its GHG emissions by six per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.

The Conservatives have argued that such a target can't be met without triggering an economic recession. Under the government's plan, Canada won't reach the Kyoto target until 2025, or 13 years past the Kyoto deadline.

However, the IPCC report may argue that there is "significant economic potential for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors."

Translated, that means cutting GHG emissions might not be a drag on the global economy and could actually create new jobs and new wealth over the long term.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has argued that cutting GHG emissions can create economic growth.

The cost of cuts

The report also argues there will be some cost associated with stabilizing or reducing the amount of GHG emissions in the atmosphere.

For example, just stabilizing the amount of emissions at 650 parts per million by 2030 would result in global GDP being reduced by 0.2 per cent.

Reducing emissions to 445 parts per million by that date would cost up to three per cent of global GDP.

Costs can be lowered further if governments use the revenue from carbon taxes or permits to invest in new low-carbon technologies or to provide rebates that reward carbon reducing behaviours, the report will say.

Parts of the Conservative plan are in line with that finding.

The Tories have only put a $15 to $20 per tonne figure on the price of carbon. The report will say that figure should be $22 to $55 per tonne to make business look for alternatives, which means the Canadian price might not be high enough to drive change.

The report will say that "near-term health benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of GHG reductions can be substantial."

On Monday, Health Minister Tony Clement told CTV: "In terms of air pollutants, which are a much more important health factor, we have a very ambitious plan to reduce by 50 per cent some of the main pollutants that are found in our air right now."

The report will warn to not expect much impact from market forces alone in reducing emissions from cars and trucks. Canada plans to introduce mandatory regulations by 2011.

Biofuels such as ethanol -- which the Conservatives have been aggressively touting -- will play an almost-negligible role in cutting emissions, the report will warn.

Even so, biofuels will make up about three per cent of the world's transportation fuel supply by about 2030, it will say.

Scientists and government bureaucrats are in Bangkok, Thailand working on the final version of the report.

Nations disagree with recommendations

On Thursday, delegates expressed confidence that they can overcome differences with China and India on the final draft of the report.

The report calls for fast action to avoid environmental disaster, but some of the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitters -- including the U.S. -- disagree with the recommendations.

The document must be unanimously approved by all governments represented and all changes must be approved by scientists.

The process has been going more smoothly than expected thus far, French delegate Michel Petit told The Associated Press.

"China and India were the governments having more questions and requesting changes in the existing text,'' he said. "But up to now, every time we were able to overcome their concerns and come to an agreement."

The report is expected to recommend:

• Shifting away from the widespread use of coal;

• Reforming the world's agricultural sector; and

• Keeping the world's temperature rise to two degrees Celsius above its pre-Industrial Revolution level.

China, the world's second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases following the U.S., is calling for the report to better reflect its position that richer countries are responsible for global warming and should set an example when it comes to fixing the problem, AP reports.

"China is being the most vocal about the language," said Edward Mulbah, a delegate from Liberia. "They don't want to be held responsible for consequences in the future."

China and the U.S. are both expected to try and soften the language of the report, weakening the final conclusion that quick action can stabilize greenhouse gas levels.

India also has objections, maintaining that development must come before caps on emissions.

But delegates said most of China and India's objections had been worked out and progress was being made.

Delegates to the conference were also debating different categories of energy use and ways to cut emissions, working into the night to finish before the meetings wrapped up on Thursday.

Nuclear power has been another contentious issue. The U.S. is pushing for a strong reference to atomic energy as a clean source of power, but environmentalists are arguing that other methods of cutting carbon emissions, such as renewable energy sources, should be given priority.

This is to be the third report released this year by the IPCC.

In February, the body found that the world's climate is undeniably warming and that there is 90 per cent certainty that human activity, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, is causing it.

Last month, the IPCC said a two-degree temperature rise could subject up to two billion people to water shortages and threaten 20 to 30 per cent of the Earth's species with extinction.

With a report from CTV's David Akin and files from The Canadian Press