A new poll suggests the two main political parties hold essentially the same level of public support as they did after the Jan. 23, 2006 federal election.
The results make a spring vote highly unlikely, according to analysts who weighed the poll's findings.
"I think it would be very difficult for them (Liberals and Conservatives) to go to an election with these numbers," Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel polling firm told CTV.ca on Wednesday.
"There's not a lot of enthusiasm for either one of these parties."
"(Prime Minister) Stephen Harper can't seem to get over that magic 40 per cent where he could call an election and get a majority government," said Robert Fife, CTV's Ottawa bureau chief, adding the Tories are running against the tide of public opinion on Afghanistan and the climate issue.
The poll, conducted between April 21-24 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, gives the Conservatives a six-point lead (percentage-point change from a March 20-21 poll in brackets):
- Conservatives: 36 per cent (-3)
- Liberals: 30 per cent (-1)
- NDP: 13 per cent (unchanged)
- Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (+1)
- Green Party: 12 per cent (+3)
The Liberals and Tories are about where they were in the 2006 vote, the Bloc are down two points and the NDP down five points. The Green party is seven percentage points above its share of the 2006 vote.
"It signifies people's support for the green agenda," Donolo said, but cautioned the Green party hasn't captured 12 per cent of the vote yet in an election.
He also thought the NDP had to be worried about the Greens' growth, which would explain the negative reaction by NDP Leader Jack Layton to the recent deal between Liberal Leader Stephane Dion and Green Leader Elizabeth May to not run candidates against each other.
If it were up to the poll's respondents, no party would have to test themselves with the electorate any time soon. Almost two-thirds of respondents would prefer to see a vote in 2008 or later.
However, Donolo found it interesting that 55 per cent of respondents thought the government would be justified in calling an election if the opposition parties voted down the government's crime or environmental legislation.
While the public appears to be content keeping the Tories on a short leash, they don't appear to fear a Conservative majority.
Twenty-three per cent think they would receive better government under a Conservative majority, while 25 per cent think it would be worse. Forty-five per cent say there would be no change.
Battlegrounds
In Ontario and Quebec, the two biggest electoral battlegrounds, the Conservatives have lost some ground.
The big story in Quebec, however, is the Bloc's bump after their provincial sovereigntist cousins, the Parti Quebecois, finished third in the March 26 provincial election (percentage point change from a March 20-21 poll in brackets):
- Bloc Quebecois: 39 per cent (+6)
- Conservatives: 21 per cent (-3)
- Liberals: 19 per cent (-5)
- Greens: 12 per cent (+1)
- NDP: 9 per cent (+1)
"There had been expectations the Conservatives would have gotten a boost in Quebec out of the Quebec election. That's not borne out by our numbers," Donolo said.
The Conservatives have lost their post-budget surge in Ontario:
- Liberals: 41 per cent (+1)
- Conservatives: 33 per cent (-7)
- NDP: 16 per cent (+3)
- Greens: 11 per cent (+4)
Out West, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 27 points (50 per cent to 23 per cent). The NDP has a one-point lead over the Greens (14 per cent to 13 per cent).
Afghanistan, Kyoto
The poll also asked questions about Afghanistan and Kyoto.
On Afghanistan, 36 per cent of respondents support the sending of troops, while 57 per cent are opposed. The 'opposition' respondents hold a majority in Ontario and the West, but opposition is particularly pronounced in Quebec. There, 72 per cent of respondents oppose sending troops.
Donolo said it's noteworthy that only six per cent of all respondents express very strong support, while 26 per cent are very strongly opposed.
The last time a majority of respondents supported the sending of troops was in a March 2006 poll, which is just after the Kandahar phase of Canada's Afghanistan involvement began. Back then, 55 per cent supported the sending of troops, while 41 per cent were opposed.
A substantial minority, 46 per cent, think the troops should be brought home now. Eighteen per cent think the troops should have been returned after the original February 2007 deadline, and eight per cent support the troops remaining until 2009.
Twenty-four per cent say the troops should stay until Afghanistan is stabilized and rebuilt.
On casualties, 34 per cent say that is the price that must be paid, while 61 per cent say the price is too high.
Although they don't appear to be willing to sacrifice on the battlefield, Canadians are apparently willing to sacrifice for the environment.
Sixty-one per cent say Canada should try to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, while only 32 per cent agree with the view that the Kyoto targets are unachievable and that a made-in-Canada approach is required.
Environment Minister John Baird warned last week of dire economic consequences should Canada try to meet the Kyoto target of a six per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2012.
According to this poll, Canadians don't believe him. Thirty-six per cent say they find it believable that Kyoto would cost 275,000 jobs and trigger a recession, while 60 per cent don't find it believable. Only eight per cent find the claim very believable, while 25 per cent say it's not believable at all.
"Kyoto has become a symbol. The word itself is like a magic word. It's become a litmus (test) by which government actions and intentions are measured. That's fairly or unfairly," Donolo said.
Technical notes
- The poll was conducted between April 21 and 24 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
- One thousand respondents were sampled nationally.
- Results are based on tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older
- The national margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
- In Quebec, 247 people were sampled with a margin of error of 6.3 percentage points.
- In Ontario, 379 people were sampled with a margin of error of 5.0 percentage points
- In the West, 297 people were sampled with a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.
