The Middle East, and indeed much of the world, is bracing for Iran to carry out a revenge attack on Israel over the assassination of Hamas鈥� political leader. But could Tehran instead be prepared to pull back in exchange for progress on Gaza peace talks? That was the hope among regional leaders gathered at an emergency summit in Jeddah.
It was Wednesday and the world was on edge. Flights across Iran and its neighbours were cancelled amid fears that missiles could fly any moment, triggering a much-feared escalation of Israel鈥檚 war in Gaza.
With his country on the brink of triggering a regional war, Iran鈥檚 Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri whispered to an aid bending close to catch his words.
Cameroon鈥檚 foreign minister sat to Bagheri鈥檚 right, Yemen鈥檚 to his left, along with a room full of other foreign ministers from Muslim-majority countries, all there to help prevent the situation from spiralling into a wider conflict.
Since Hamas鈥檚 political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran last week, the Islamic Republic鈥檚 leaders have vowed vengeance against Israel, whom they claim was responsible. Israel hasn鈥檛 confirmed or denied responsibility.
The unassuming venue for such a last-ditch effort to quell Iran鈥檚 seething rage was the headquarters of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation鈥檚 (OIC), modest by Saudi Arabia鈥檚 rapidly modernizing and glitzy standards. It sits in a dusty, nondescript corner of the Red Sea city of Jeddah.
The play in the room, if it can be called that, was carefully articulated to CNN by Jordan鈥檚 foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, who stepped out of the high stakes talks to promote the initiative his vulnerable kingdom is championing: 鈥淭he first step toward stopping the escalation is ending its root cause, which is the continued Israeli aggression on Gaza.鈥�
The thrust, to convince Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to soften his stance in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, isn鈥檛 new. But the payoff this time may be much more attractive than previous attempts.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the U.S. and its allies have communicated directly to both Israel and Iran that 鈥渘o one should escalate this conflict,鈥� adding that ceasefire negotiations have entered 鈥渁 final stage鈥� and could be jeopardized by further escalation elsewhere in the region.
Safadi was in Tehran over the weekend and met both Bagheri and Iran鈥檚 new President Masoud Pezeshkian, and appears to believe that Iran may be looking for an off ramp to escalation.
Iran needs diplomatic cover to back away from its hasty threats against Israel in the immediate aftermath of Haniyeh鈥檚 killing: a Gaza ceasefire that would allow Tehran to claim it cares more for the lives of Palestinians in the Palestinian enclave than it does for taking revenge would fit the bill. But the payoff needs to be big enough for Iran as its honor and deterrence are at stake.
France鈥檚 President Emanuel Macron is adding his diplomatic heft, declaring in a phone call with Pezeshkian Wednesday, retaliation against Israel 鈥渉as to be abandoned鈥�.
Pezeshkian鈥檚 response suggests he is listening. 鈥淚f America and Western countries really want to prevent war and insecurity in the region, to prove this claim, they should immediately stop selling arms and supporting the Zionist regime and force this regime to stop the genocide and attacks on Gaza and accept a ceasefire,鈥� he said.
Could Hezbollah act alone
Nearly ten months since Israel鈥檚 war in Gaza, triggered by Hamas brutal Oct. 7 attack which saw around 1200 people in Israel killed and at least 250 others taken hostage, almost 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Palestinian health officials - and there is still no end in sight to the conflict
The catch in the Gaza ceasefire escalation off-ramp play is that it is heavy on hope and short on substance.
For it to work, Netanyahu will have to buy in to it too.
Hamas just made this harder by replacing Haniyah with his tougher counterpart inside Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, an architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, and anyway, right now they are in no mood for meaningful talks.
The change, if it鈥檚 going to come, according to the consensus at the OIC has to be from the outside, from the only person who remotely has the clout to temper Netanyahu 鈥� U.S. President Joe Biden.
But almost a year into the conflict, Biden refuses a showdown with Israel鈥檚 most hardline, right-wing government in its history, that also adding to the frustrations in Jeddah.
Riyad Mansour, Palestine鈥檚 Permanent Observer at the UN, was in the room with Bagheri and the others.
鈥淭he region does not need escalation,鈥� he said 鈥淲hat the region needs is a ceasefire. What the region needs to address legitimate rights. I have a feeling that Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to drag President Biden into a war with Iran鈥�
What Bagheri did get in Jeddah was the kind of diplomatic support intended help get them off the ledge, with Mansour saying 鈥淲ith regard to what Iran wanted about, you know, the respecting its territorial integrity and its sovereignty, there was, you know, a strong support to this sentiment.鈥�
As the acting Iranian foreign minister left for Tehran following the four-hour emergency meeting, focus shifted slightly back to Iran鈥檚 Lebanese proxy Hezbollah, which is also intent on retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander Fu鈥檃d Shukr in Beirut hours before Haniyeh鈥檚 killing.
One U.S. official and one western intelligence official told CNN that fears are higher now about Hezbollah taking action than Iran, raising the prospect that the Lebanon-based militia group may act without them.
For Netanyahu this may look like semantics intended to blunt Israel鈥檚 desire for an overwhelming response against either aggressor.
He views Iran and Hezbollah as different hands of the same theological head.
With the exception of direct IranianIsraeli exchange of fire in April, Hezbollah has always landed the punches on Israel Iran hesitates to take, and may this time throw a double blow, one for Shukr and one for Hamas鈥檚 Haniyeh.
Were that the case Israel鈥檚 retaliation against Hezbollah could just as quickly become the regional escalation dragging in Iran that everyone fears.
What is clear, the Jeddah meet and the back channel diplomacy buys diplomatic space and time to develop an off ramp that has a least a little traction for now.
Both Iran and the U.S., to a degree, are buying in to it.
Whether this fizzles out to another false horizon is with Bagheri and his president.
