When Hawaii officials released a report last year ranking the natural disasters most likely to threaten state residents, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic hazards featured prominently. Near the bottom of a colour-coded chart, the state emergency management agency described the risk of wildfires to human life with a single word: 鈥渓ow.鈥
A year and a half later, the catastrophic fires that engulfed Maui and the historic town of Lahaina this week have already become the state鈥檚 deadliest natural disaster in more than six decades, with a fatality count of 55 that is expected to rise.
- In pictures: Wildfires burning on the Hawaiian island of Maui
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Hawaii officials underestimated the deadly threat of wildfires even as they acknowledged a lack of necessary resources to mitigate them, according to a CNN review of state and local emergency planning documents that show how ill-prepared the state was for the disaster.
One Maui County report on wildfire prevention from 2021 stated that while the number of acres consumed by wildfires had spiked, funds to prevent and mitigate them were 鈥渋nadequate.鈥 The report also stated that the county fire department鈥檚 strategic plan included 鈥渘othing about what can and should be done to prevent fires鈥 鈥 in what it called a 鈥渟ignificant oversight.鈥
The report recommended a thorough risk assessment of fire hazards, but it鈥檚 not clear whether officials heeded the recommendation.
Other reports over the past five years show authorities knew the risk of fires was increasing and could be exacerbated by hurricane-force winds 鈥 like the Lahaina blaze was. 鈥淔ires occurring as a result of and concurrent with another major threat or disaster, such as a hurricane, are particularly challenging,鈥 one report stated, with first responders and firefighters stretched to capacity. During this week鈥檚 fires, Hurricane Dora was hundreds of miles south of Maui, but the storm鈥檚 winds still fanned flames on the island.
The state emergency management agency鈥檚 public resources webpage also lays out clear, bullet-point recommendations of what residents should do in the event of a hurricane, tsunami, flash flood or earthquake. At the bottom of the page, the agency includes two short paragraphs about wildfires 鈥 with no similar advice on ways to stay safe.
Hawaii and Maui County officials didn鈥檛 immediately respond to requests for comment Friday as disaster response efforts continued.
While fires were historically sparked by volcanic eruptions and lightning strikes, the area burned in the state each year has dramatically increased over recent decades, according to a 2014 report by University of Hawaii researcher Clay Trauernicht.
In August 2018, brush fires broke out as Hurricane Lane neared Maui. The fires engulfed more than 2,000 acres and forced dozens to flee their homes. The storm should have been considered a 鈥渞eal-world wakeup鈥 call for Hawaii, according to a 2019 plan from the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency.
Large fires also whipped through Maui in 2019, burning roughly 25,000 acres of former sugarcane land and dry brush as Hawaii endured record high temperatures.
The increase in fires comes as Maui has faced worsening drought conditions in recent years, according to federal data. Also, people have introduced new grass species and shrubs to the island that act as kindling in dry conditions.
鈥淭here are vast expanses of these non-native grasslands in Hawaii, and they are extremely flammable,鈥 said Abby Frazier, a climatologist at Clark University in Massachusetts, who has researched Hawaii. 鈥淓specially when you have severe drought conditions like we have.鈥
Despite these growing dangers, Hawaii state budgets for fire management have not kept pace with worsening conditions, according to the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization, a nonprofit.
鈥淗awaii has a big wildfire problem. We are on par with the most fire-prone states in the western continental US,鈥 Nani Barretto, an executive director for the group, said during a webinar in May. 鈥淭he impacts of fire are broad and long-lasting 鈥 There is a lot we can do to prevent them.鈥
The 2021 Maui County report also recommended an 鈥渁ggressive plan to replace鈥 flammable nonnative grass species, but it鈥檚 unclear whether local officials took action to do so.
Hawaii is hardly unique: As climate change is exacerbating natural disasters, state officials across the country are also struggling to respond to new threats. And it鈥檚 unclear how significantly additional preparedness and mitigation efforts could have reduced the destruction of a blaze with the intensity and speed of the Lahaina wildfire.
鈥淲hen we are preparing for the hurricane, we expect rain, sometimes we expect floods,鈥 Hawaii Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke said at a press conference Wednesday. 鈥淲e never anticipated that in this state that a hurricane which did not make impact on our islands would cause this type of wildfires.鈥
Josh Stanbro, Honolulu鈥檚 former chief resilience officer, told CNN that the 鈥渄ouble whammy鈥 of hurricanes and wildfires creates events that 鈥渁re outside of the normal paradigm, especially for emergency responders.鈥
鈥淭his didn鈥檛 happen historically,鈥 he said, noting that Lahaina stood for two centuries before the fires swept through it.
Maui鈥檚 geography, with towns hugging the coast surrounded by sparsely populated mountains and grasslands, also increases the risk from fires. In a foreshadowing of the difficulty residents faced evacuating from Lahaina, the Maui County report noted that 鈥渋sland communities are particularly vulnerable鈥 to wildfires 鈥渂ecause populations tend to be clustered and dependent on single highways, often located on the island edge.鈥
Gov. Josh Green said Thursday that the state would need to do more to prevent a similar disaster in the future.
鈥淎s we rebuild, we鈥檒l have to take into consideration a lot more fire safety,鈥 he said during a press conference.
Frazier, the climatology professor, said that the scale of the destruction in Lahaina is a lesson that 鈥渁 lot of places in Hawaii are extremely vulnerable to wildfire, and that we do need to take fire prevention much more seriously.鈥
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a really long time, I think, before people forget this,鈥 she said.