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New York Republican Congressman George Santos was recently indicted in a U.S. federal courtroom on 13 charges ranging from wire fraud and money laundering and lying to Congress. His battle to stay out of prison has just begun and time will tell if he is victorious.

However, his legal predicament has boxed House Republican leadership in on all sides, with no hope of coming out of this political quagmire unscathed. U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has announced that he will not be calling for Santos' resignation as he mounts a legal defence against the slew of charges brought before him.

This follows a pattern previous members of Congress have faced when confronted with criminal indictment. In fact, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez continues to chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee while under criminal investigation. He also served in the upper chamber during his trial on corruption charges, a case that saw him acquitted due to a hung jury.

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What makes the Santos situation different is that while House Republican leadership supports the congressman remaining a member of the lower chamber, rank-and-file members, including Republican lawmakers, are loudly calling for the freshman’s ouster.

Speaker McCarthy’s caucus currently holds a very narrow four-seat majority in the House of Representatives. Removing Santos reduces an already-slim lead and makes the challenging job of corralling votes even more difficult. Moreover, through a record 15 votes to determine the Speaker of the House, Representative-elect Santos supported McCarthy’s candidacy on every single vote. Santos has been and still remains a loyal and concrete vote for McCarthy’s agenda.

Most recently, the Republican-backed legislation to raise the debt ceiling barely passed with backing from Congressman Santos. McCarthy’s majority, much like his speakership, is hanging by the slimmest thread and he can ill afford to lose any votes, let alone any members. Therefore, calling for Santos' resignation or forcing such a move would be politically unwise for House Republican leadership.

However, looking ahead to the 2024 elections, control of the lower chamber will be up for grabs and Santos' indictment is a dark cloud that will loom over the entire House Republican caucus. Yet no members are impacted more than newly elected Republicans from the New York area who, like Santos, flipped seats from Democrat to Republican in 2022, which gave control to Republicans, granting McCarthy the gavel he so eagerly coveted.

It is these seats, including the one held by Santos, that are directly responsible for the slim majority currently held by Republicans. Still, many of these newly minted lawmakers are in their first term and remain vulnerable to the Democratic challenges that will certainly materialize.

Santos' litany of alleged lies and scheming machinations will undoubtedly be used against every Republican freshman lawmaker from New York. Vociferous calls for his resignation from New York Republicans will be drowned out by Democratic challengers and the left-wing apparatus eager to take control of the House of Representatives.

This leaves Speaker McCarthy staring down both an immediate and future political conundrum. Oust Santos, a clear and unequivocal supporter, now, and the narrow majority becomes even more fragile. Allow him to remain a member of the caucus, and Democrats’ chances of retaking the House in 2024 grow exponentially.

McCarthy’s bargain to attain the gavel is once again underscoring the precariousness of his power as he now succumbs to the foibles of Santos malfeasance. Nothing is safe and the power undergirding the Republican majority continues to stand on shaky ground.

Making matters worse for the Speaker, Santos has no intention of resigning and is vowing to fight the charges. Like former U.S. president Donald Trump, the titular head of the GOP, Santos' criminal saga will play out in the headlines at a time when the Speaker seeks to gain the upper hand in negotiations with the White House over the debt ceiling; the forthcoming budget; and war spending on Ukraine. It is an unnecessary distraction that could cripple McCarthy’s bargaining position.

Yet, Santos' loyalty and unwavering support to House Republican leadership has been without question. To spare Speaker McCarthy from additional embarrassment, and perhaps himself, Santos voluntarily stepped down from assigned committees as his trails of alleged lies were exposed. Perhaps equally important, in a caucus where vote-counting has become a complete mystery, he has been a stalwart and steady vote on key issues for leadership.

However, his indictment and subsequent bellicosity are now becoming costly for his caucus and specifically, Speaker McCarthy. His indictment is placing the Speaker in an untenable position as McCarthy faces governing challenges and rough political terrain in 2024.

Lies. Corruption. Indictment. Santos may be the culprit but the Speaker will bear the brunt of the political fallout. Doing something or doing nothing carries with it a very heavy price for the man that has courted the gavel his entire career. Now it all crests with a man whose alleged lawlessness appears to have finally caught up with him. This dragnet has not only ensnared its inevitable target, but also the political fortunes of an entire caucus including the man at the top!