Canada is home to the third largest Ukrainian population in the world, after Ukraine itself and Russia. As the saying goes: 鈥渁ll politics is local鈥�. By that reckoning, a homeland dear to the hearts of generations of Ukrainian Canadians, is going to have a strong influence on politics here.
About 1.5 million Canadians have Ukrainian roots. They wield a lot of influence.
I remember being invited to give a speech at the annual meeting of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress when I was Leader of the opposition. I鈥檇 hired a tutor to coach me in my pronunciation and got kudos for delivering my remarks in my beginner Ukrainian.
It wasn鈥檛 a fair contest, though, because Chrystia Freeland was in the room. She had already announced that she was going to run in a safe Liberal seat in Toronto. I was like someone who sings in the shower trying to compete with an opera star. Freeland was lionized in the Ukrainian community and she owned the evening.
Chrystia Freeland is not only deputy prime minister and finance minister. She is the presumptive heir to the leadership of the Liberal Party and with it, Prime Minister. She has also been Foreign Affairs minister and as a student had joined the struggle, in Ukraine, to restore independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In addition to Ukrainian, she speaks fluent Russian. She knows the root causes of this conflict like few in government anywhere.
She embodies the hopes of an extremely concerned community as the Russian sabre-rattling continues on the border. With her deep experience in the U.S., Freeland can and should play a significant role in finding a peaceful solution, if she can overcome her Russophobe bent.
Sixty years ago, the world was on the brink of a major conflict during the Cuban missile crisis. The Americans imposed a naval blockade. The West celebrated the fact that the Soviets 鈥渂linked鈥� and had withdrawn their missiles. What became clear in ensuing years was that there had been a trade-off.
The U.S.S.R. was concerned about recently installed American missiles in Turkey, close to their own borders. The Americans had been similarly worried about the threat in Cuba, just across from Florida鈥檚 coast. President John F. Kennedy had made a less-publicized agreement to remove the American missiles in Turkey and the world was spared a nuclear conflict.
That was statecraft at the highest level. We need that type of leadership today.
It's a cliché that the world is more interconnected than at any time in history. It鈥檚 also true. At the same time that Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine, it is about to start massive shipments of natural gas to Western Europe thanks to the just completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Those exports are crucial to the Russian economy.
World markets are reacting very badly to the instability on the Russia-Ukraine border, including markets in Russia. Russian spokespersons can bravely shrug off the threat of deep economic sanctions but Putin鈥檚 leadership will have a very short shelf-life if Russians are shivering and can鈥檛 find enough to eat.
Shortly after the Winter Olympics in Russia, Vladimir Putin invaded Crimea. Crimea had been part of Ukraine, thanks to Nikita Khrushchev settling the matter in the 1950鈥檚. No one worried, it was all the U.S.S.R. With the fall of the Soviet Union, two of Russia鈥檚 principal naval bases were now, on paper at least, in another country. It was an untenable situation. As Ukraine sought to assert control and ownership, the Russian invasion was as predictable as it was illegal.
Russian control of Crimea is now a political reality that is not about to change. The West should take stock and begin an adult conversation with Russia about Crimea and about an exit strategy from the current brinkmanship. Not to encourage or reward Russia鈥檚 bad behaviour but as acknowledgement that a solution has to be found.
Predictably, as NATO has moved matériel closer to Ukraine, the Russians are crying wolf saying that what is in fact a reaction to their threatened aggression, has somehow retroactively become its cause. That is of course nonsense but truth is indeed the first casualty in times of conflict.
The current historic feebleness of the United States has a lot to do with Russian boldness in this adventure.
Weakened by failed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Americans added to their troubles with the insurrectionist attack on their Capitol by Trump-inspired half-wits. Their democratic institutions were shaken along with their leadership and credibility on democracy and the rule of law.
It鈥檚 also become clear that Joe Biden is no longer the man he once was. His handlers have been keeping him away from the media. When he does speak, like his recent incomprehensible statement on mild Russian incursions attracting no sanctions, it causes chaos. When Secretary of State Antony Blinken had to openly contradict and correct Biden, the Russians benefited.
The key issue is the desire of Ukraine to join NATO and America鈥檚 refusal to close the door to that possibility. Of course, Russian behaviour makes it easy to understand Ukraine鈥檚 desire. The Russians are now requesting withdrawal of countries such as Bulgaria and Romania from NATO as part of the bargaining process. That, of course, is a total nonstarter but they know that.
What they do want is to keep Ukraine out of NATO and NATO out of Ukraine. They also want to come to a deal on missile deployment in bordering states.
Every sixty years isn鈥檛 bad as these things go. In 1962, a cast of lead characters from Kennedy to Pope John XXIII to Khrushchev all played their roles brilliantly in the denouement of the Cuban missile crisis. That story ended well.
It鈥檚 urgent for a new generation of leaders to deliver their own once-in-a-lifetime performance as they take centre stage in this current drama.
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017.
