Justin Trudeau didn鈥檛 get the majority he thought he was entitled to last September, so he went and bought one with taxpayers鈥� money.

We鈥檒l be receiving the first part of the invoice with Thursday鈥檚 budget.

His deal with the NDP will bring in lots of new social programs, which are the best way to reduce inequalities in our society. They鈥檙e also hard to dismantle when a new government comes along. A win for the NDP鈥檚 base but in the eyes of most Canadians, it鈥檚 Trudeau who鈥檒l get the credit.

Chrystia Freeland will have to show that there is at least some inkling of a plan to reduce the record deficits we rang up during the pandemic. Will she take the risk of opening up on the revenue side, as rumoured, by whittling away some of the capital gain exemptions on the sale of primary residences? She and Trudeau have already said they鈥檒l increase taxes for financial institutions. What other moves will there be?

One thing is certain, after the presentation of Steven Guilbeault鈥檚 detailed plan, there will be lots of money for the promised fight against climate change. Billions.

Monday鈥檚 shocking UN report by the IPCC is an alarm bell for future generations. When UN Secretary General António Guterres called 鈥渁 litany of broken climate promises鈥� and decried 鈥渢he yawning gap between climate pledges and reality,鈥� Canada鈥檚 own behaviour was one of the targets. Despite that shot across our collective bow, Canada will continue to subsidize oil and gas companies and approve new destructive fossil fuel projects.

Guilbeault is deeply experienced with a really pragmatic streak that distinguishes him from many of his former colleagues in the environmental movement. He has navigated well in his new position, letting the bureaucrats know he鈥檚 the boss. His plan, like him, is intelligent and ambitious.

I knew him well during the three years that I was Quebec鈥檚 environment minister. You could talk with the guy. He knew when someone was making an honest effort and when he was being fed a line. We got along well.

I was one of the skeptics when he threw in his lot with Trudeau. I attended his nomination meeting and was surprised by the stark partisan tone he struck in defending the Liberals鈥� record on climate. They had bought a pipeline! How could Guilbeault back that?

His answer was strong if not quite convincing. Trans Mountain was a fait accompli, no sense crying over spilt milk. He asked to be judged on his own results.

He鈥檚 about to get what he asked for. The information dribbling out of Liberal quarters in Newfoundland and Labrador points to rapid approval of the major offshore oil project known by the bilingual name of 鈥淏ay du Nord.鈥� The hush-hush sequence was: adopt a big climate plan (to provide cover); talk a lot about climate in the budget (to provide even more cover); approve this massive new fossil fuel project. Simple as 1-2-3鈥�

The Liberals have prepared a Rolodex of rationalizations:

  • It鈥檚 far less intensive, in terms of GHG production per barrel, than the oil sands. True, but it鈥檒l be in addition to the oil sands, not in the place of. Inevitably, the oil will also get burned, somewhere, increasing global warming.
  • Under the constitution, provinces have jurisdiction over natural resources. True again, but this offshore project has to go to the Federal Cabinet for approval. Without Trudeau and Guilbeault鈥榮 blessing, it can鈥檛 proceed.
  • Canadian oil doesn鈥檛 have the stigma of Russian oil. Also true, but it does have the same GHGs.
  • N.L., as part of the sales job, may be persuaded to agree they won鈥檛 be making any new requests for approvals (but how can one government bind the hands of any future House of Assembly?).

Trudeau broke a key election promise with the new Liberal climate plan. During the election campaign he was hit hard by Jagmeet Singh for having the worst record in the G7 under the Paris Accord. To help get out of the bind, Trudeau swore there鈥檇 be a 鈥渉ard cap,鈥� an absolute limit, on GHG production in the oil and gas sector. That has proven false, and Guilbeault was stuck saying we鈥檒l get to it some time in the future . Now the other shoe is about to drop with the approval of Bay du Nord.

Last Friday, Steven Guilbeault was greeted by young people screaming at him about Bay du Nord. When he became Environment Minister, I鈥檇 joked with him that he鈥檇 better get prepared for the day when environmentalists would protest him. He chuckled because he knew it was inevitable.

What鈥檚 not inevitable is approving a project that can only worsen climate change.

In my current role as Chairman of the Board of Earth Day Canada, I have a front row seat to view the serious engagement of many Canadians, municipalities, businesses and NGO鈥檚 in the fight against climate change. I also know that the federal government can be an incredible catalyst and partner. Guilbeault has begun to show that.

What鈥檚 been sorely lacking for decades is any serious action by the Canadian government. To our eternal shame, we were the first country in the world to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol. That was on Stephen Harper鈥檚 watch but Liberals can find no solace in swinging blame towards the Conservatives.

As former Chrétien Chief of Staff Eddie Goldenberg frankly admitted, in explaining Liberal failure to meet our international obligations, they had signed Kyoto without a plan. It was, he said, more about galvanizing public opinion. A high-sounding way of admitting that it was an exercise in political communication, nothing more.

Many Canadians just believe, without evidence, that the Liberals must be doing something right on climate. Over the top attacks by Conservatives actually help them in this regard. The Liberals have consistently taken full political advantage of that credulity. Trudeau has always understood that Canadians need to be told we鈥檙e taking real action, even when we鈥檙e in last place. It helps him get elected. Like the Wizard of Oz, he tries to maintain the illusion and pleads with Canadians to pay no attention to the offshore oil rig behind the curtain. We somehow feel better with Justin Trudeau鈥檚 failure on climate than with Stephen Harper鈥檚.

I was in the room in Paris, in 2015, when Justin Trudeau flung out his arms and proclaimed that 鈥淐anada is back鈥�. He waited to get back to Canada to say, more discreetly, that he was back with Stephen Harper鈥檚 plan, timelines and targets. Trudeau never even met those.

Trudeau was able to go to last Fall鈥檚 climate summit in Glasgow thanks to the presence of Guilbeault, who has lots of credibility on the world stage. Trudeau had the temerity to tell other countries that they should be more like Canada! Don鈥檛 expect him to strut his stuff at the next one.

In the days following the budget, there will be a moment of truth for Guilbeault. Will he go along with his Prime Minister and approve Bay du Nord or will he take the type of principled stance he鈥檚 taken in the past?

You can鈥檛 claim to be fighting climate change and at the same time approve an increase of oil production of hundreds of millions of barrels.

Will Trudeau once again show that for him, it鈥檚 all about appearances and that actual results don鈥檛 matter? Despite the real danger and all of our promises, will Canada continue to be among the highest per-capita emitters on the planet?

Younger Canadians will be counting on Trudeau and Guilbeault to do the right thing and refuse to increase Canada鈥檚 fossil fuel production. Their future quality of life depends on it but nothing could be less certain, given the Liberal track record of just faking it.

Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017.