Pierre Poilievre delivered an epic stemwinder to the Conservative Party faithful in Quebec City on Friday. He threw in every simplistic solution he鈥檚 been touting for years.
Canadians should start paying more attention to his nostrums and begin asking tough questions. Those are the types of questions that Poilievre likes to avoid because, in his view, journalists who ask them are part of a conspiracy against him.
I had the opportunity to work across the aisle from Poilievre for over a decade. They can lose the glasses, drop the tie, slow the cadence and reduce the Brylcreem. Those of us who got to know his overheated demagoguery firsthand know that nothing will have really changed -- and that鈥檚 the danger.
Poilievre has very little experience or expertise in dealing with big problems. When he finally did make cabinet, after years of languishing on the backbenches, he proposed an electoral reform that would have stacked the deck in favour of the Conservatives. Even Stephen Harper had to back away from it.
He鈥檚 had to apologize any number of times for mean-spirited and bone-headed pronouncements that were often hurtful. He did so again this summer when he slagged a woman鈥檚 home as a tiny little shack, to suit his narrative of the day. On the day of the apology for residential schools, he insulted Indigenous Canadians.
He claims to know so much about the economy that he鈥檚 going to fire the Governor of the Bank of Canada for incompetence. Yet he tells Canadians that bitcoin can be a hedge against inflation.
People who know him will tell you that Poilievre has a good sense of humour. I can confirm that he does. He鈥檇 often regale the other backbenchers during his interventions in the House, but his humour was almost always at someone else鈥檚 expense.
Pierre Poilievre hasn鈥檛 changed, he鈥檚 just found, and started listening to, really good communications advisors.
Trudeau has hit a wall
Americans have term limits for some elected offices, notably that of president. Two four-year terms and you鈥檙e out on the lecture circuit.
In Canada, you can stay on as long as the voters will put up with you. That鈥檚 the real wall Justin Trudeau is hitting now. It has been eight long years since he triumphed over Harper鈥檚 Conservatives and the NDP that I led at the time.
Trudeau鈥檚 run included three years of pandemic. No event since 2015 is more important than that unprecedented health crisis in assessing the deep difference of approach Poilievre鈥檚 theories could have wrought.
As we learned during the illegal occupation of Ottawa by truckers, the individual in charge really does matter. Who we choose as prime minister, of course, matters most.
The then chief of the Ottawa police turned out to be wholly incapable of handling the events that unfolded. He鈥檇 been hired based on criteria that clearly didn鈥檛 include expertise in crisis management. It was only after his hasty that a plan could be put in place to deal with and ultimately end the crisis.
In that case, the error was reversible. It鈥檚 not so easy if we put the wrong person in the Prime Minister鈥檚 Office.
Leadership matters
As Ottawa replaced its police chief, families were still suffering because a few hundred malcontents had decided they鈥檇 occupy Ottawa until the government was replaced.
What did Poilievre do to help put an end to the drama? Far from being opposed to those involved in that illegal occupation, he brought them donuts and encouragement. That鈥檚 the same Poilievre who talks about the importance of respecting the rule of law.
Instead of showing leadership, Poilievre surfed on a populist protest wave that led to police being put in danger at a border crossing in Alberta and the closing of the crucial Ambassador Bridge in Ontario.
That鈥檚 the Pierre Poilievre we should all be concerned about: someone who will say or do anything if he calculates that it can suit his partisan and personal interests, then scurry away when it turns against him.
What would Poilievre have done differently?
Poilievre correctly states that Trudeau had already burned through $100 billion in new debt before the pandemic hit, with nothing to show for it. Where we should be paying attention is his statement that he鈥檒l get to a balanced budget despite the massive borrowing that occurred to deal with the pandemic.
Don鈥檛 get me wrong, I鈥檝e always believed that as a general rule governments shouldn鈥檛 spend more than what they take in and shouldn鈥檛 take in more than what鈥檚 required to do the work of government. It鈥檚 on that last part -- the work of government -- that Poilievre鈥檚 promises should be critically analyzed.
Poilievre has it easy. He only has to say now that there was too much borrowing during the pandemic. He鈥檒l never say what he would鈥檝e done differently.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, millions of Canadian families lost their livelihood overnight. Trudeau pushed aside a first version of a plan that was too complicated. He brought in programs for aid that got cheques out rapidly so families could put food on the table and have a job to go back to. He will always deserve recognition for that leadership and for making people his priority.
What are Poilievre鈥檚 priorities for the spending cuts that would be necessary to achieve his stated goal?
Poilievre doesn鈥檛 try to hide the fact that he鈥檇 dump the new dental program for kids. His disdain for what he views as the unholy Liberal/NDP alliance makes it clear that that program would soon be on the chopping block. That would be tragic, socially and economically. Good teeth are a key determinant of lifelong health and many families just cannot afford to have their kids seen by a dentist. It鈥檚 good policy and a wise long term investment, but Poilievre doesn鈥檛 seem to think long term.
Poilievre and Quebec: Politics by focus group
Much has been said about Poilievre鈥檚 outreach to Quebec voters. Don鈥檛 hold your breath. Quebecers don鈥檛 like to get married. It鈥檚 a sociological detail, but just one of many you鈥檇 have to understand if you鈥檙e going to pitch to Quebecers. The same thing seems to apply in politics. In one generation, Quebecers have voted for a majority of Conservative, Liberal, Bloc and NDP MPs in different elections.
The inability to figure out that Quebec really is different, has meant that the Conservatives have never won more than a dozen of the province鈥檚 78 seats, since Mulroney. It鈥檚 not a focus group led by a Toronto advertising firm that鈥檚 going to change that.
In his speech and that of Peter MacKay earlier Friday, the Conservatives made it clear that they鈥檙e going to shove a new pipeline through Quebec, the same way Trudeau shoved the $32-billion Trans Mountain pipeline across B.C.
Despite their tendency to change voting affiliation en masse from election to election, Quebecers share strong core values on environmental issues. The question of pipelines will slowly trickle from last weekend鈥檚 convention into the mainstream.
Good luck with that, Mr. Poilievre.
Magic and loss
Poilievre has had his magic weekend in Quebec City, a tour de force. Trudeau will return from India once they鈥檝e fixed his flying clunker. (Like 24 Sussex, a memorable symbol of the Trudeau years.) Parliament will soon resume and Candians will be asking: when is this going to be over?
The answer, of course, is whenever Trudeau and Singh screw up the courage to let Canadians decide. Or, perhaps, when Trudeau finally takes his 鈥渨alk in the snow.鈥�
In the meantime, Canadians would be well advised to listen carefully to what Poilievre is saying and how it could affect their quality of life.
Micro-targeting a sub-question on complex transgender issues is the same 鈥榯hin edge of the wedge鈥� technique used by conservatives in the matter of reproductive choice. And a wedge issue it is.
鈥榃e鈥檙e not against abortion, we鈥檙e just against sex-selection abortion.鈥� 鈥榃e鈥檙e not against trans people, we鈥檙e simply talking about a parent鈥檚 right to know.鈥� Yeah, sure.
The Conservatives have a monumental war chest that far outweighs those of all other parties combined. They intend to use it.
Stay tuned for more ads aimed at the Liberals and the NDP across Canada and, yes, even the Bloc in Quebec.
Modern politics is all about polling, focus groups and masses of information, on every person in our society, that can be used to develop intelligence on how to target issues and win votes. There鈥檚 nothing new in politicians telling voters what they want to hear. It鈥檚 the sheer quantity of the data available that is different. The deeper your pockets, the deeper the information you can buy.
Trudeau and Poilievre do have at least one thing in common: they鈥檙e both exceptionally skilled politicians. Both ran and won in tough ridings. Both made impeccable runs to their respective party鈥檚 leadership.
Trudeau is deservedly rapped for his phony virtue-signaling and his objectively abysmal record on key issues like climate change. He also knows how to tell people what they want to hear but, unfortunately, rarely does what he鈥檚 promised them. At its core, though, with NDP guidance, his government has generally tilted in favour of the wider public good.
The same cannot be said of Harper or, I would predict, Poilievre.
What 'elites'?
Poilievre rails against the 鈥淟aurentian elites.鈥� I live in the heart of the Laurentians and can safely report that we don鈥檛 have a heck of a lot of elites. Just hard working folks of the type you鈥檒l meet in every other corner of Canada. But using dog-whistle terminology to divide one group of Canadians against the others is part of the Poilievre package.
Poilievre tends to see nothing good in鈥oodness, in generosity of spirit and benevolence. He knows what鈥檚 right and he鈥檒l try to shove it down your throat if you don鈥檛 see things the way he does. It鈥檒l take more than a one-hour speech to paper over that fundamental characteristic. That鈥檚 why I sincerely believe that people should take a much closer look at the contents of the snake oil that Poilievre is prescribing.
As our extraordinary singer and songwriter, , once put it: 鈥測ou don鈥檛 know what you鈥檝e got 鈥榯il it鈥檚 gone.鈥�
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017
