OTTAWA -- It鈥檚 time someone sat Justin Trudeau down for The Talk.
It happens to the best of them, that moment in a prime minister鈥檚 reign when a top staffer, political ally or even a trusted family member finally tells them what they need to hear instead of what they want to hear.
The Talk is invariably about telling them it鈥檚 time to go.
Trudeau needs to be told what he clearly doesn鈥檛 understand, that his sunny days have sunset, that his dismal poll numbers will not suddenly rebound and that there鈥檚 a low probability he will win re-election despite facing a hard-to-like opponent in Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
But ego and vanity are a potent combination in leadership politics. They conspire to incite the afflicted to stretch one term too far; to risk it all for a final shot of election glory and watch their political careers crater in a concession speech and same-night resignation. Exhibit A: Stephen Harper.
The signs are everywhere this condition is infecting Trudeau鈥檚 mindset as he now seems deadly serious about seeking re-election in 2025.
The prime minister seemed to believe a popularity rebound would be as simple as a cabinet shuffle, a few photogenic visits to disaster areas with a hand over his heart or wildly fearmongering his opponent.
But the cabinet shuffle was a bust as a revitalization project. It left weak ministers like Bill Blair and Harjit Sajjan in over-their-head portfolios, a newcomer lineup filled with virtue signalling over merit, and fed-up backbenchers primed to stir up trouble if the party鈥檚 downward spiral continues.
And the jawdropper of the summer was watching Trudeau fumble the reigning issue of the year, the critical shortage of affordable housing. He let his spin doctors whisper to the media that it would be his cabinet retreat鈥檚 top-priority consideration, allowed his new housing minister to float a trial balloon about limiting international student numbers to ease the squeeze and then announced . . . NOTHING.
In lieu of action, Trudeau tossed out the usual word salad.
We鈥檙e the "best country in the world and let us make it even better鈥e are rolling up our sleeves and getting work done鈥e are looking forward to continuing to do the work we鈥檝e been doing on housing."
Such bland babble almost makes you almost yearn for the eloquent-by-comparison "helping the middle class and people working hard to join it" mantra.
But empty words now match inaction by a prime minister who churns out a daily itinerary heavy on 鈥榩rivate meetings鈥� (four this week), readouts of phone chats with second-tier foreign leaders (Wednesday it was with the prime minister of , 鈥渢he second most mountainous country in the world鈥�) and posing in elaborately unnecessary photo-ops.
Meanwhile we鈥檙e the laughing stock of the G7 on military readiness, we鈥檝e got social media giants blacking out emergency domestic news and a government continuing to boost immigration while washing its hands of the fallout on cities, housing and social services.
The resulting leadership-driven meltdown is happening faster than even the most giddy Conservative could鈥檝e predicted.
New data from CTV pollster Nik Nanos pegs the Liberals a distant third in the 18-to-29 age bracket which initially swooned over his leadership. Liberal numbers barely show a pulse at 16 per cent support compared to the Conservatives at 39. And then there鈥檚 the crumbling Liberal bedrock in Atlantic Canada.
Yet the prime minister appears blissfully unaware or, even worse, willfully unconcerned about the ugly fate looming larger on the horizon as his personal unpopularity drags a strong-brand party toward electoral defeat.
Perhaps his head is filled with the pixie-dust prospect of climbing higher into the top 10 list of longest-serving Canadian prime ministers, what with the exceeding the Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper reigns within reach.
Or it could be he relishes the prospect of taking Poilievre to the electoral woodshed to prevent his rival from undoing signature accomplishments like the carbon tax.
But without a vital vision to sell, Trudeau needs to be honestly told that a fourth-straight victory is unlikely and that ending a nine-year run with a decent number of big deal accomplishments is good enough.
Given the year it takes to plan a leadership convention and another six months for the next leader to gel with voters, now is the right time to signal change at the top for a 2025 election.
That鈥檚 why someone needs to quickly point out there鈥檚 an easy choice for Trudeau between probable electoral rejection and voluntarily jumping into his father鈥檚 1960 Mercedes 300SL convertible and driving off to retirement on corporate boards, the speaker circuit and dating websites.
Trudeau needs The Talk to save himself from ending up a loser. Because if The Talk fails, voters appear increasingly determined to send him walking.
That鈥檚 the bottom line.
