Remember when a new television season started in September? Not this year.
Looking forward to big-budget blockbusters coming to a theater near you next summer? Maybe not.
You鈥檝e always heard great things about 鈥淏reaking Bad鈥� or 鈥淭he Wire鈥� but you never got around to watching it? Or maybe something more recent like the 鈥淭he Last of Us,鈥� which just got nominated for more than two-dozen Emmy awards? Now鈥檚 your chance.
And by the way, it might be a while before you know how many of those Emmys 鈥淭he Last of Us鈥� eventually takes home. The awards show, as with much in the TV and movie industry, is also very much uncertain right now.
But what you can count on is more reality shows, and maybe game shows, and probably more opportunity to binge shows that have already been on your favourite streaming service.
That鈥檚 because about 160,000 actors who belong to SAG-AFTRA are about to go on strike, joining more than 11,000 members of the Writers Guild of America who have been on strike since May 2.
PREPPING FOR THE LONG-HAUL
Some movies are already complete, of course, like 鈥淏arbie鈥� and 鈥淥ppenheimer,鈥� and set to hit theatres. And, like automakers or other manufacturers who might try to build extra inventory ahead of strike deadlines, some streaming services have been preparing for these strikes by stockpiling new movies and shows to roll out.
鈥淲e had to make plans for the worst. And so we do have a pretty robust slate of releases to take us into a long time,鈥� Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said in April, just before the start of the writers strike.
But that pipeline of new shows is already slowing to a trickle.
Data from film permits in California indicates that production of most shows and movies already has been halted by the writers strike. Even though movies typically have a script in hand when they start shooting, revisions and changes mean a writer is usually needed while production proceeds.
Now with actors also going on strike, most remaining production will stop. The exception will be independent movies that are not associated with one of the major studios.
One group of television shows that will continue to produce new episodes is the traditional daytime soap operas. The writers of those shows are typically nonunion, and the unionized actors work under a different contract than the one that expired at 11:59 p.m. PDT on Wednesday.
But most other actors will stop working as soon as the union鈥檚 government board votes to go on strike later Thursday. Rank-and-file members have already voted 98 per cent in favour of authorizing a strike.
Actors will not be doing publicity for movies that are being released, including appearing on the red carpet at movie premieres or doing interviews on podcasts. Of course, the writers strike brought an immediate halt to new episodes of U.S. late night shows, so the opportunity to do that sort of publicity was already limited.
HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?
What isn鈥檛 clear is how long this will continue. There are hopes by some in the industry that since writers and actors are out at the same time, that will put pressure on the studios and streaming services to improve their offers and get everyone back to work sooner rather than later. The last time the writers and the Screen Actors Guild, the precursor of SAG-AFTRA, were on strike at the same time was 1960 鈥� so long ago that Ronald Reagan was the SAG president leading that strike.
But everyone agrees the industry is going through unprecedented change as the ways that the public consumes shows are changing rapidly, and the economics are changing with it.
Disney CEO Bob Iger didn鈥檛 seem to suggest there will be a solution in the near term, in comments Thursday morning.
鈥淭hey are adding to a set of challenges this business is already facing that is quite frankly very disruptive,鈥� said Iger, who is set to receive more than US$25 million in compensation this year, about SAG-AFTRA and Writers Guild in an interview on CNBC. 鈥淵ou have to be realistic about the business environment and what this business can deliver.鈥�
But the unions say their members are suffering because of the changes in the business, like the shrinking amount of broadcast residuals in the age of streaming, and they鈥檝e been pushed to the point where they can鈥檛 accept what the studios and streaming services are offering.
鈥淭he studios and streamers have implemented massive unilateral changes in our industry鈥檚 business model, while at the same time insisting on keeping our contracts frozen in amber,鈥� said a statement from Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, the union鈥檚 chief negotiator, issued early Thursday morning. 鈥淭he studios and streamers have underestimated our members鈥� resolve, as they are about to fully discover.鈥�
So don鈥檛 expect to see the return of many of your favourite shows any time soon.
