WINNIPEG - Last year was bad for some western farmers but another soggy spring has set the stage for one that could even be worse, sucking an additional $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion out of the prairie economy.
Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the Canadian Wheat Board, said Tuesday that somewhere between 2.4 million and 3.2 million hectares of farmland will go unseeded in the West, mostly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
"Many farmers in the wettest areas have planted next to nothing this spring, while others are watching their newly emerged crops drown," he said at a grain industry event.
"This is occurring at a time when grain prices are extremely high, adding insult to injury."
That seeding estimate is only marginally better than last year, which was the lowest on record since 1971. But Burnett also forecast yields that could be lower than last year due to other factors, such as an even later start to seeding this season.
He said it's too early to pin an accurate dollar figure on what an estimated 700,000-tonne drop in wheat production could cost, but agreed it could fall somewhere between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion. The wheat board is estimating production of all wheat at 20.3 million tonnes -- down from 21 million in 2010. The five-year average is 22.4 million tonnes.
Doug Chorney, president of Manitoba's Keystone Agricultural Producers,said the only bright spot in Tuesday's forecast was that it was somewhat more positive than earlier grim estimates.
"Unseeded acre productions for Manitoba have been reduced ... but it's still gigantic, the largest-ever unseeded acre potential in Manitoba history," said Chorney, who farmers near Selkirk, Man..
Burnett's best estimate is that there will be just over 2.6 million unseeded hectares in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Manitoba will account for a little more than one million out of a total of just under five million hectares of farmed land in the province as a whole.
Chorney also noted that as seeding gets later and later in the year, yields also are dropping.
"That's not good news for farmers."
He has his 600 hectares planted but is worried that, if wet weather continues, it is going to hurt his yield.
"I think the canola and soybeans look real good, but the wheat is struggling."
Flooding in southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan has compounded a problem first sown last year and early this year, when heavy snowfall covered ground that was already soaked at freeze-up in some areas, Burnett said.
Overall, the board says seeding is about 86 per cent complete across the Prairies. It's normally done by this time.
Burnett noted that the bad news is only for farmers affected by the wet weather. Last year, for example, overall farm income in Canada set a record thanks to high prices and lower input costs.
Prices remain high and since Canada produces a relatively small percentage of the world's wheat -- estimated at 664 million tonnes for 2011 -- the impact of a smaller crop here doesn't have much impact on world price or costs of wheat-based products at the grocery store.
The wheat board estimates a western barley crop of about 7.7 million tonnes compared with seven million last year and a five-year average of 9.3 million tonnes.
