Bacon and pork product prices in Canada and across the world are expected to spike as a result of the African swine fever outbreak in China, experts predict.
The disease is killing thousands of pigs in China -- one of the world鈥檚 largest pork producers -- which is wreaking havoc in the global pork supply chain.
鈥淚t鈥檚 having a huge impact on the population of the world,鈥� University of Guelph professor Robert Friendship told CTVNews.ca over the phone.
He explained that higher pork prices across the world will be the result of a large chain reaction.
It boils down to this: China鈥檚 booming middle class is now eating more pork, but with the swine fever overwhelmingly killing pigs from China, the country is going to need to import more pork. This will make pork more scarce worldwide and increase the price for everyone.
Pigs and pork byproducts have never been eligible for Canadian import from a country affected by African swine fever.
鈥淓verything will get passed onto the consumer,鈥� Friendship said, adding this effect would be particularly felt in the price of processed and cured meats like bacon and ham.
鈥淸Pork] prices are likely going to go up until this issue with African swine fever is corrected,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd it looks like that could take quite a while 鈥� it鈥檚 going to get worse, before it gets better.鈥�
One estimate pegged China as producing half of the world鈥檚 meat, with Friendship saying half of the pig population specifically used in mass food production is in China. But as China鈥檚 middle class has grown, so has their meat consumption.
Friendship warned that if China is unable to meet its demand for pork, it will begin turning to other animal products, which could in turn increase the price of beef and poultry for everyone too.
A worker sorts pig carcasses at the Tianhe pork processing factory in Guangzhou, in south China's Guangdong province Monday, Aug. 6, 2007. (AP Photo/Color China Photo)
Last year, China produced 54.8 million metric tons of pork and ate close to 60 million tons in pork.
鈥淭he meat of choice in China is pig and disease has been devastating for them,鈥� Friendship said. 鈥淭hey have lost a lot of pigs and they will be doing lots of culling.鈥�
He noted that although official figures from China suggest the outbreak鈥檚 effect have been minimal, experts estimate that 鈥渨e鈥檙e dealing with tens of millions of pigs who have disappeared.鈥�
Friendship estimated the decrease in pigs is roughly the equivalent of what Canada and the U.S. produce combined. And this lack has created a vacuum.
鈥淒espite the tariffs and trade wars going on, they鈥檙e coming out and buying pig meat and that鈥檚 starting to affect prices in North America,鈥� Friendship said. 鈥淭he rest of the world does not produce enough pig meat.鈥�
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone told "we expect it to be a five to seven year problem before production can be restored."
And while the price for pork is expected to rise, Friendship said the winners in this situation are Canadian pig farmers.
At the beginning of 2019, Canadian farmers earned $150 for every pig shipped to market but now they鈥檙e making between $220 to $225, he said.
THE SPREAD OF SWINE FEVER
鈥淭here鈥檚 no cure, no vaccine available and 鈥� if a pig is infected but not showing clinical symptoms, the virus may be in the meat for months,鈥� Friendship said. 鈥淚f meat is cured [like] sausages or ham, those can those still can carry the virus.鈥�
Although the latest outbreak was first noticed in China last August, the disease has spread across Russia, eastern Europe and is now moving across Vietnam and Cambodia.
Friendship blamed China鈥檚 documented practice of feeding pigs human kitchen waste for helping to spread the disease.
He also stressed that people shouldn鈥檛 be worried about contracting African swine fever as it only affects pigs. But people could still accidentally spread the virus through contact or by unknowingly smuggling in affected meat.
This is why travellers at borders and airports are asked if they鈥檝e dealt with pigs or travelled to farms where pigs could have African swine fever.
鈥淲e鈥檝e got a good track record of keeping these kind of diseases out,鈥� Friendship said. 鈥淐anadian pig farmers shouldn鈥檛 have any sleepless nights.鈥�
鈥淚 feel the risk is low but the consequences of an inadvertent outbreak would be devastating,鈥� he said, adding that could include billions of dollars lost in revenue and and potentially closed borders.
