The Liberals have lost ground in vital Ontario battleground ridings to the Conservatives, New Democrats and the Greens, according to the results of a new poll.
The latest Battleground 2008 poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows that fewer respondents would vote Liberal in key Ontario ridings if the election was held today, than in 2006.
Here's how people responded (Change from 2006 in brackets)
- 39 per cent would vote for the Conservative candidate in their riding (+2)
- 21 per cent would vote NDP (+2)
- 10 per cent would vote Green (+5)
- 31 per cent would vote Liberal (-8)
The results are from polling conducted between Sept. 16 and 18. They show that over the past few days, support has been shifting away from the Liberals, who have struggled to explain Stephane Dion's "Green Shift" carbon tax plan.
The Liberals have slipped six points in the 20 key Ontario ridings compared to the Sept. 15 to 17 poll.
Following are the results of the Sept. 15-17 poll:
- 35 per cent would vote Conservative
- 19 per cent would vote NDP
- 10 per cent would vote Green
- 37 per cent would vote Liberal
Meanwhile in Quebec, the Liberals and the Bloc have each lost 7 per cent support since 2006, while the Conservatives have gained six per cent, the NDP has gained five per cent and the Greens have gained three per cent support.
Following are the results of the latest polling in the province's key ridings. The results from the previous poll (Sept. 15-17) are in brackets:
- Conservatives: 29 per cent (27 per cent)
- Liberals: 21 per cent (26 per cent)
- NDP: 13 per cent (12 per cent)
- Bloc Quebecois: 30 per cent (26 per cent)
- Green Party: 7 per cent (10 per cent)
When broken down by region, the greatest difference was in key Montreal battleground ridings, where the Conservatives showed eight per cent growth from 2006, the Liberals were down 10 per cent, the NDP was up six per cent, the Bloc was down four per cent and the Greens were up one per cent.
In British Columbia's key battleground ridings, the Liberals and New Democrats had both seen their support slip from 2006, while the Conservatives and Greens have seen gains.
The Conservatives are now showing a strong lead in the province, compared to 2006.
Following are the latest results when respondents were asked how they would vote today. The difference from 2006 is in brackets.
- Conservatives: 45 per cent (+10)
- Liberals: 27 per cent (-6)
- New Democrats: 18 per cent (-9)
- Green Party: 11 per cent (+6)
Poll details:
The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present findings from three surveys of the Battleground Regions of Ontario (n=420), Quebec (n=405) and British Columbia (n=390)
Forty-five of the most hotly contested ridings from Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia comprise the Battleground 2008.
Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia were chosen because they possess the highest concentration of ridings where multiple Parties are likely to have the toughest competition.
In the Federal Election of 2006 and subsequent By-Elections, these forty-five ridings were home to the tightest races in the most populous provinces in the country.
The forty-five ridings consist of the 20 tightest races in Ontario, the 15 closest races in Quebec and the 10 tightest races in British Columbia from the 2006 Federal Election and subsequent byelections.
Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 ridings constituting the Battleground 2008. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.
Data collection for this report was conducted between September 4th to 18th, 2008.
Sample size and margin of error (Sep 16-17):
- British Columbia battleground ridings 390 (+-5%)
- Ontario battleground ridings 420 (+-4.8%)
- Quebec battleground ridings 405 (+-4.9%)
