For the first time in the 2008 election, the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia's battleground ridings.
That's in stark contrast from the start the campaign period when the Conservatives were polling at 45 per cent compared to the Liberals' 25 per cent.
In polling conducted Oct. 6-8, the Liberals had 33 per cent support to the Conservatives 31 per cent, in B.C.'s key swing ridings.
The NDP were in third place at 23 per cent support, and could have a big role to play on election day if some of that vote moves to the Liberal camp.
The new Battleground 2008 poll of 45 close races in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and the Globe and Mail, comes less than a week before Canadians head to the ballot boxes on Oct. 14.
In Ontario's battlegrounds, the Tories and Liberals are neck-and-neck, with Stephen Harper's party slightly ahead and Stephen Dion's party nipping at his heels.
But in Quebec battlegrounds, the Bloc Quebecois have surged into a very comfortable front-runner status.
The Conservatives had hoped to make in-roads in Quebec to build a majority on, but their support has faded throughout the campaign.
But in a rare bit of recent good news for Quebec Tories, they have moved past the Liberals into second place, in this most recent poll.
British Columbia polling
In British Columbia's 10 battlegrounds, the race is now a statistical tie, with the Liberals barely out in front of the Conservatives in polling conducted Oct. 6-8.
Here are the parties' results in B.C. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):
- Liberal: 33 per cent (+6)
- Conservative: 31 per cent (-7)
- NDP: 23 per cent (+1)
- Bloc: n/a
- Green Party: 14 per cent (same)
The Conservatives had as much as 46 per cent support in September polling in B.C. battlegrounds.
Despite the Liberals lead in the poll, they cannot yet be considered front-runners. Liberal support is often higher in polls than it is on election day in British Columbia and a strong NDP vote may benefit the Conservatives.
Ontario polling
According to polling conducted Oct. 6-8 in Ontario's 20 battleground ridings, the Conservatives held 36 per cent support, a loss of four per cent from polling done from Oct.1-4.
With Quebec seemingly out of reach for the Tories, Ontario is considered the key battleground in determining the 2008 election: (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):
- Conservative: 36 per cent (-4)
- Liberals: 33 per cent (+5)
- NDP: 21 per cent (same)
- Bloc Quebecois: n/a
- Green Party: 11 per cent (-1)
Quebec polling
The Bloc Quebecois continue to perform strongly in the battleground ridings, leaving the Liberals in a dogfight for ridings in Montreal and the Tories to battle it out in ridings outside of the city
The Bloc Quebecois, which was floundering before the election call, has been given new life over the campaign: (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll)
- Bloc Quebecois: 43 per cent (+3)
- Conservative: 21 per cent (same)
- Liberal: 20 per cent (-2)
- NDP: 13 per cent (same)
- Green Party: 6 per cent (+2)
Technical notes:
The poll was conducted from Oct. 6-8 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The B.C. battleground ridings have a sample size of 390 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points.
The Ontario battleground ridings have a sample size of 420 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
The Quebec battleground ridings have a sample size of 405 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 battleground ridings. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.
