KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - Statistics and reports suggesting rising violence and the failure of coalition efforts in Afghanistan don't match with the impact of Canada's efforts in Kandahar, says the commander of overseas military operations.
Though the "finish line" is still far away, success in those areas of the volatile southern province where Canadian troops are working is obvious, said Lt.-Gen. Michel Gauthier, the commander of the Canadian Expeditionary Force Command during an interview on his 20th trip to the country.
More Afghan National Army soldiers are on the ground, the Afghan National police is growing stronger by the day and direct attacks by insurgents are down, Gauthier said.
"We've geographically expanded the security bubble in which we can operate and in which Afghans can live, we've had a serious disruptive effect on the insurgency and we're seeing the results of that," Gauthier said.
"Yes, they're having limited success with IEDs, that's the only thing they can succeed with right now. They can't succeed with attacks on us or attacks on the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police we're working with. That's all positive."
According to statistics released last week by NATO, incidents involving attacks from improvised explosive devices were up 65 per cent in 2007 over 2006, and they predicted more of the same for the coming year.
Even the new leader of Regional Command South, Canadian Maj.-Gen. Marc Lessard, admitted when he took over his post that incidents in the six southern provinces were up 50 per cent.
A number of high-profile reports by the U.S. government and international think tanks have also all suggested the insurgency is regaining the upper hand as NATO efforts falter.
But Gauthier said how he measures success is looking at the select few districts where Canadian forces are at work in Kandahar province.
"You can only do so much with the troops that you have, you've gotta make those tough decisions," Gauthier said.
"You've got to take Kandahar and bite if off one bite at a time and that's effectively what we've done here."
The bubble of Canadian operations in Kandahar has shrunk over recent months.
Where troops used to be scattered throughout the area, they now concentrate mostly on a handful of districts - Zhari, Panjwai, Spin Boldak, Sha Wali Kot and the Arghandab.
In those areas, development dollars are flowing and people are moving back home, though security is still a threat.
Among other things, the fact that the roads are not secure is still holding up the arrival of a turbine that would bring electricity to the people of Kandahar city, who have been sitting in the dark for the last two months.
But in other areas of the province, like Maywand and even some villages in the Panjwaii, the insurgents remain an active threat.
"You have got to make decisions about where you are going to apply your effort so what do you do?" Gauthier said of the decision by Canadian forces to focus only in a few districts.
"Manley panel, bring another battalion to Kandahar, good. Marines coming in, good, but in the meantime we focus."
Canada's current commitment in Afghanistan is set to expire in one year, but the Conservative government tabled a motion on Friday proposing an extension until 2011, provided NATO countries supplied an additional 1,000 troops for Afghanistan.
Over 3,000 American soldiers are also expected to arrive in the coming months to join the international coalition's work in Kandahar.
Military officials often cite the increased use of IEDs as a sign of a weakened insurgency but the non-stop use of the improvised bombs over the traditionally quiet winter months has produced discomfort among soldiers and commanders alike.
Brig.-Gen. Guy Laroche, the commander of the current rotation of Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan, acknowledged recently that the pace of operations hasn't changed much in the field since the summer months.
It will be spring again before the real sign of how well things are improving in Kandahar becomes clear, said Gauthier.
That's when the fighting season will begin anew.
"The measure of success will be where we'll be in May to September as compared to where we were last year," he said.
"And I am confident that we will be better off, the security situation will have improved in those areas."
Gauthier says improvement year over year has been the case since troops first hit the ground in Kandahar in February 2006.
Each fighting season has been stronger than the last, he said.
Gauthier attributes that almost completely to the growing strength of the Afghan National Army and police, both able to hold ground that six months ago was easily swallowed up by insurgent forces.
"There is a finish line somewhere down the road and with what has been accomplished over the last six months we are moving towards that finish line," he said.
"We are."
