TORONTO - The Ontario government has been able to stick by its green energy plans amid a looming recession by making the project about jobs, but its biggest challenge may be one of public relations, not finance.
The focus on green energy has come at a political cost, with the Liberals losing their majority mandate after this fall's election. That result ushered in a precarious new term that some worry could lead to an overhaul of the green plans if the Liberal government falls.
Experts don't believe in a doomsday scenario for green energy in Ontario, because despite the ongoing controversy, the Green Energy Act has been tied to jobs -- and it's the only solution that has been put forward to deal with pressures in the electricity system.
But that doesn't mean the government isn't going to have an uphill battle trying to implement the changes.
"It's a very difficult issue, the biggest problem is public opinion, getting the public to accept the fact that essentially our energy supplies are going to have to change," said Henry Jacek, a politics expert at McMaster University in Hamilton.
"People want the energy but they don't want to look at the infrastructure that creates that energy."
There has been ongoing opposition from many rural areas where residents worry about the health effects of having wind turbines placed near their homes, and complain about a lack of local consultation.
"Rural Ontario hasn't had strong local democracy since the Green Energy Act was passed," said John Laforet, former president of Wind Concerns Ontario, and the man who spearheaded the revolt against the Liberals in those parts.
"What caused the political backlash was three years of the government just refusing to listen. It was citizens who had tried everything else to express their concerns and frustrations and watching it fall on deaf ears in Toronto, rise up and stand up for themselves and defeat those MPPs who weren't prepared to do the job."
The Liberals lost some high-profile politicians in that fight, including former Education Minister Leona Dombrowsky and Environment Minister John Wilkinson.
"It's quite clear where rural municipalities stand on this issue," Laforet said.
"If the industry wants to have a future in Ontario -- and if the Liberals want to have a future governing Ontario -- I think it's going to be important for everyone involved, to talk to citizens who are opposing these projects to find out what and what can be done."
Environmentalists have praised some aspects of the act but continue to express concern over the province's commitment to nuclear power, which makes up 50 per cent of its energy source, as well as a lack of focus on conservation efforts.
"The GEA has been an amazing success since it was passed in 2009, but the GEA will effectively expire in 2018 if the government doesn't permit green and clean sources to displace at least some nuclear supply," said Shawn-Patrick Stensil, a nuclear analyst with Greenpeace Canada.
"Otherwise put, if the Liberals don't reduce their commitment to nuclear, the GEA may suffer the same fate under the Liberals as under the Tories."
The harshest criticism for the plan, however, has revolved around costs.
Ontario's auditor general added his voice to the chorus of critics recently by casting doubt on the Liberals' job-creation figures and suggesting that 30,000 of the promised 50,000 jobs that were to be created under the Green Energy Act would likely to be short-term construction gigs.
What's more, he argued, studies in other jurisdictions have shown that for every job created through renewable energy, two to four jobs are often lost in other sectors due to higher electricity prices.
Auditor Jim McCarter also exposed how independent decision-making over renewable energy projects has effectively been quashed by concentrating power in the energy minister's office, and found that the government fast-tracked billions of dollars of wind and solar energy projects with little oversight -- a move that will add about $220 million a year to the cost of electricity in Ontario.
"The auditor general's report put the lid on the Green Energy Act," said Progressive Conservative critic Vic Fedeli.
"How can you continue to hold out any hope at all for any of the policies in there?"
The Tories support hydroelectric, gas and nuclear energy, and would opt to scrap the act if elected.
The New Democrats support parts of the act, but would like to see some aspects, like its feed-in-tariff program, applied to smaller projects, as well as a renewed focus on efficiency and conservation.
Energy Minister Chris Bentley has said he will take a look at the auditor's recommendations, but insisted the focus on green energy was the right move, even if the province ends up finding itself in the midst of another recession.
"We started this in the depths of a world economic recession when we were fighting for jobs, fighting to create opportunities," said Bentley.
"It's been very successful so far, 20,000-plus jobs, billions of dollars worth of investments either here or committed. We're involved in a review right now that will help us address the price issue, improve the approach, and we're going to continue to strengthen it."
That perseverance may give hope to other jurisdictions struggling to get the environment on the agenda when jobs are voters' main concern.
But just like Ontarians cared little about the success of green energy in places like Germany, Jacek said voters in other areas won't be swayed by Ontario's strategy.
"I don't think public opinion is looking at what's going on in other places," Jacek said.
"It's a very local orientation -- it's what can I see and hear from my front porch."
