While Tzipi Livni's Kadima party appears to have won more parliamentary seats than any other competing party in Israel's national elections on Tuesday, the Israeli foreign minister still may not be named as the country's next prime minister.
Livni, the leader of the centre-left Kadima party, had been trailing the Benjamin Netanyahu-led, right-wing Likud party in the days before the election.
But exit polls on Tuesday predicted that Kadima would take between 29 and 30 seats in Israel's 120-seat parliament, while Likud was expected to few slightly fewer, likely between 27 and 28 seats.
With just over two-thirds of the votes counted, Livni's Kadima party was leading with 29 seats, Channel 1 television reported. The TV station said Likud was only one seat behind Kadima's lead, with 28.
CTV's Middle East Bureau Chief Janis Mackey Frayer said it could take days for official results to come back, though preliminary results could be available on Wednesday.
But even if Kadima wins the most seats in parliament, it does not guarantee that Livni will head the next government, which will be a coalition.
If she does, she will be Israel's second-ever female prime minister, behind Golda Meir.
When the election results are finalized, it will be up to President Shimon Peres to pick the leader he thinks can form the most capable coalition government.
"It's at that point that he chooses someone -- likely the person that won the most votes -- to form a coalition government," Mackey Frayer said Tuesday from Jerusalem. "That person then has 42 days to do so."
Greater public support for right-wing parties
The problem for Livni is that the same exit polls showed right-leaning parties taking more seats than their left-leaning colleagues, meaning two of Israel's most hardline parties -- namely Likud and the far-right Yisrael Beitenu -- will, at a minimum, play a major role in the next government. And the right-wing party members know it.
In a post-election speech, Netanyahu said he was proud with the gains his party had made and that "with God's help" he would be named as Israel's prime minister for a second time. He previously served as prime minister a decade ago.
"With God's help, I will lead the next government," Netanyahu told supporters.
"The national camp, led by the Likud, has won a clear advantage."
One Likud legislator said it was irrelevant that the party had apparently failed to win the most seats, because they were still in the best position to govern.
Gilad Erdan predicted "Bibi," a nickname for Netanyahu, would lead the forthcoming government.
"The right-wing bloc won," he said. "It doesn't matter that he came in second. Bibi will be the next prime minister."
Projections suggested that right-wing parties would take 66 parliamentary seats, while left-wing parties were expected to take 54 seats.
Livni, however, gave no sign that she felt she would not lead the new government.
"Today the people choose Kadima...we will form the next government led by Kadima," she said.
Before the polls closed on Tuesday, the two front-runners had urged people to vote in the election that would set the agenda for future peace negotiations in the Middle East.
"I have just done what I want every citizen in Israel to do," Livni said after casting her vote at a Tel Aviv polling station. "First of all, to get out of the house, rain or no rain, cold or hot, go out, go to the polling station, go into the booth, close your eyes, and vote."
Netanyahu portrayed himself as the candidate best equipped to deal with the threats Israel faces.
"I will do everything so that our enemies won't provoke us, won't think we're weak, won't rain down ... their rockets," he told reporters in Beersheba, the southern Israeli city hit by rockets from Gaza during the fighting there.
"They'll know that in Israel there's a different government, a strong prime minister who will answer with a crushing response to any attack on us."
Yisrael Beitenu leader may help shape government
Avigdor Lieberman, the controversial leader of Yisrael Beitenu and a former Netanyahu confidant, could play a key role in forming a coalition government with whoever wins the election. Exit polls suggested his party secured at least 14 seats, representing more than 10 per cent of the available parliamentary seats.
The party received more vote than the well-known Labor party, which, at one time, ruled Israel for decades.
During the election campaign, Lieberman had been pushing for the members of Israel's Arab minority to swear allegiance to their country, or face losing their citizenship.
The Yisrael Beitenu leader said he could be persuaded to work with either Livni, or Netanyahu, if given the chance to join the ruling government coalition.
Menachem Hofnung, a political science professor at Hebrew Univesrity, called Lieberman a "kingmaker," who will have major influence over the shape of the next government.
Mackey Frayer said Liberman's appeal had broadened over the course of the election campaign, a development that "says a lot about the security fears that the people across Israel have right now."
She said those fears surround the recent conflict in Gaza and the threat of a nuclear Iran.
"They want somebody to talk tough and make very sharp decisions on Israel's future," Mackey Frayer said.
She said the issue of peace talks with the Palestinians has taken a backseat in this election.
"According to a lot of people, they see negotiations as a failed political experiment of the past," she said.
Netanyahu has said he is against relinquishing land to the Palestinians and favours expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
"I will do everything so that our enemies won't provoke us, won't think we're weak, won't rain down ... their rockets," Netanyahu told reporters in the southern city of Beersheba, which was hit by rockets from Gaza during the fighting there.
"They'll know that in Israel there's a different government, a strong prime minister who will answer with a crushing response to any attack on us."
If Livni wins and does form a coalition with a more hard-line party, it will be very difficult for her to pursue the peace agenda she has promoted, observers say.
For U.S. President Barack Obama, who has made achieving peace in the Middle East a top priority, a coalition government is sure to present challenges.
With files from The Associated Press
