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Coronavirus

    • Could surge in COVID-19 cases in Ontario, Quebec mean new restrictions? Expert weighs in

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    As Canada鈥檚 two most populous provinces grapple with a surge in COVID-19 cases, concerns are swirling over whether new restrictions could be imposed before the holidays.

    On Saturday, 1,512 new COVID-19 cases were detected in Quebec, marking the highest single-day tally in the province since April.

    A total of 1,234 new cases were reportedin the provinceon Tuesday.

    Meanwhile, in Ontario, 1,184 new cases were detected on Sunday, marking the province鈥檚 highest daily increase in six months.

    On Tuesday, Ont.officials said 928 more people had tested positive for the virus.

    Dr. Doug Manuel is a senior scientist in the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute's clinical epidemiology program.

    He told CTV鈥檚 Your Morning that in some places, the increase in case counts has already resulted in additional restrictions.

    鈥淵ou鈥檙e already seeing it in say Windsor-Essex 鈥 they鈥檝e reduced their capacity in restaurants by 50 per cent,鈥 Manuel said Tuesday.

    He said in Ontario, a lot of the places hardest-hit are rural communities outside of the greater Toronto area.

    鈥淚n many places across Canada, we鈥檙e getting cases above 100 cases per million per day,鈥 Manuel said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 often when public health can鈥檛 keep up anymore with contact tracing and starts to think about more restrictions.鈥

    To date, 76 per cent of the Canadian population are vaccinated against the virus.

    Asked whether the vaccination rate means Canada could see less extreme measures, should they be reintroduced, Manuel said it 鈥渉elps tremendously.鈥

    鈥淲e鈥檙e following Europe,鈥 he said. 鈥淓urope has about the same vaccination rate as us and many countries, they opened up quite quickly later in the summer or in the fall, and their cases went up quickly, and now they鈥檙e imposing restrictions and some of those countries are imposing more severe restrictions than we have in Canada.鈥

    Manuel said he 鈥渉asn鈥檛 seen鈥 a country or jurisdiction 鈥渟uccessfully make that transition with current vaccination rates.鈥

    鈥淏ut that doesn鈥檛 mean that we have to have full restriction like we鈥檝e seen in the past,鈥 he said.

    Ultimately, Manuel said things are dependent on what happens with the Omicron variant.

    The variant -- first detected in South Africa -- has caused global panic. Several countries, including Canada, have imposed more stringent travel restrictions in a bid to keep the disease outside of their borders.

    However, by Monday, at least 23 cases of the Omicron variant had already been detected in Canada.

    Manuel said he expects Omicron will 鈥渢ake over as the dominant strain worldwide, sooner than later.鈥

    He said researchers are waiting for more data from South Africa, to determine whether those who have been infected with the Omicron variant experience more severe symptoms.

    鈥淭he hospitalization rates are starting to go up there quite quickly,鈥 he said. 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e still hearing that people in hospital are less severe than they鈥檝e seen in the past.鈥

    He said 鈥渇or sure it鈥檚 more transmissible.鈥

    鈥淚t will likely take over very quickly, and the only question is as it comes in quickly, will that result in increase hospitalizations and deaths?鈥 he continued. 鈥淭hat will dictate what we do moving forward.鈥

    WHAT HAVE PROVINCIAL AUTHORITIES SAID?

    Health officials in both Ontario and Quebec have suggested new restrictions are not in the immediate plans.

    Last week, Ontario鈥檚 Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said he doesn鈥檛 expect the province will re-impose restrictions due to the Omicron variant.

    鈥淚f we see widespread presence of Omicron across Ontario, which is not the case at present, then we could review any measures that we need to take at a provincial level.鈥

    He said, though that he doesn鈥檛 have a 鈥渃rystal ball.鈥

    Moore said if it鈥檚 a 鈥渓ess lethal virus,鈥 has less impact on the province鈥檚 hospital sector and vaccines continue to work against it, 鈥渨e will continue our current strategy and not have to have any further public health restrictions.鈥

    However, on Tuesday, officials in Ontario did announce the pause on moving to the next step of reopening plans would continue indefinitely.

    Next week, capacity limits were supposed to be lifted in some high-risk settings where proof of COVID-19 vaccination is required.

    However, that was delayed last month due to a surge in cases. 

    In new modelling released by the Science Table COVID-19 advisory for Ontario on Tuesday, researchers said cases are rising in 鈥渕ost public health units鈥 across the province due to the Delta variant.

    鈥淭esting has not increased, but positivity is rising,鈥 . 鈥淭his is a real rise in cases.鈥

    The scientists said modelling shows that, even without the Omicron variant, occupancy in intensive care units at hospitals in Ontario is expected to climb to between 250 and 400 by January, putting hospitals under strain once again.

    鈥淲e can鈥檛 predict Omicron precisely, but it will almost certainly hit us hard and fast,鈥 the scientists said in a series of tweets on Tuesday. 鈥淐ases are rising, even without much Omicron yet. Our hospitals and ICUs are feeling pressure again. We need to increase vaccination and we can鈥檛 let up on public health measures.鈥

    Meanwhile in Quebec, officials announced Tuesday that gatherings of up to 20 vaccinated people will be allowed in private homes beginning on Dec. 23.

    Currently only 10 people from no more than three households are allowed to gather in homes.

    Premier Francois Legault said last week that the province was not planning to add additional public health measures.

    鈥淚 know Quebecers well enough to know that there are many people fed up with the current measures,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 like the trend, but it鈥檚 under control.鈥

    Legault said as long as hospitalizations 鈥渟tay at low levels, it remains under control.鈥

    With files from CTV's Katharine DeClerq and Sean Davidson, and The Canadian Press 

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