OTTAWA - Seven years ago, a Liberal prime minister called an early election, striking while his neophyte Opposition rival was still trying to find his way to the parliamentary washrooms.
The old pro, Jean Chretien, handily trounced the upstart, Stockwell Day.
In a stark reversal of fortunes, many Liberals now fear Prime Minister Stephen Harper is plotting to engineer the defeat of his minority Conservative government this spring, hoping to do to Stephane Dion what Chretien did to Day.
The newly minted Liberal leader has more experience and depth than Day, a newcomer from Alberta politics, could boast when he was plunged into his first federal campaign. But Dion has nevertheless got off to a shaky start, presenting Harper with an opportunity to force a vote before the new leader can find his feet.
With polls suggesting the Tories and Liberals remain in a virtual dead heat, it would be a risky gamble. But some Liberals think the opportunity to catch Dion off his game could prove irresistible.
More disturbing for some veteran Liberals is the possibility that Dion has handed Harper an excuse to pull the trigger himself, rather than waiting for the opposition parties to topple his government at a less opportune moment.
Dion is insisting that Harper is bound to adhere to a Liberal private member's bill passed last week, calling on the government to deliver a plan within 60 days to meet the daunting Kyoto targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As some veteran Grits envisage it, Harper could pull the plug shortly after presenting the Tories' alternative climate change plan in next month's budget, declaring that he won't devastate the economy by committing the country to a kamikaze course proposed by Liberals who failed to reduce emissions when they had the chance.
"If I were Harper, I'd be going in the next three weeks," confides one dispirited senior Grit.
Early vote possible
Gerard Kennedy, Dion's election readiness adviser, concedes the Tories might indeed be cynically plotting an early election scenario.
"The fact that any party with a new leader is going to take some time to get some of the things in place might be tempting to them," he says.
"This is not a government running on its merits or running on what it really believes in. It's running on whatever factors it can put together that it thinks will assemble for it a majority."
Kennedy acknowledges that "Mr. Harper's advisers aren't wrong" in assuming an early election would put the Liberals at somewhat of a disadvantage. But while the party would be stronger if it had more time to prepare, he insists "our essential strength will be there no matter when we show up."
In terms of the "mechanics" of a campaign, Kennedy maintains the party can be ready to go if need be by the end of next month. Grassroots members are energized and an impressive roster of candidates is being recruited, although Kennedy won't disclose names as yet. The freeze on nominations has already been lifted in Quebec and Manitoba and is expected to be lifted in Ontario and other provinces in the coming week.
Plus, Kennedy notes that the party enjoyed a surge in donations in the final quarter of last year and says money continues to pour in as the party refines its mass fundraising techniques. He says the party will have sufficient funds to wage a competitive fight, abeit not the great gobs of cash the Tories are already throwing around on attack ads.
"We don't have all the resources the Tories have," he acknowledges. "But we're not saying that's a big factor. If they want to waste money, that's up to them."
Moreover, Bob Rae, co-chair of platform development, says a comprehensive platform can be ready to go as early as necessary.
"We will cut the cloth to fit the time," he says.
While the platform consultation process might have to be cut short, Rae says Liberals already have a bounty of good policy ideas generated by the leadership contest and last year's party renewal process and caucus consultations. So, if the Tories think they're going to catch the Liberals with their pants down, he says they should think again.
"If that's their test, then they're sadly mistaken."
Getting to know Dion
Beyond the mechanics of a campaign, however, Kennedy acknowledges the Liberals could use more time for one crucial pre-election task: impressing Canadians with Dion's character, vision for the country and plans for a renewed party.
"I would prefer it be done over time and with genuine face-to-face contact by the leader, the critics and the members of the party, just talking to Canadians," says Kennedy.
"I think Mr. Harper is fearful that that conversation might have a really strong effect . . . and he may want to head us off at the pass with that. We could have that conversation successfully in the course of an election campaign. It is higher risk. I don't think there's any bones about that."
All the more so since the Tories are attempting to sour Canadians' first impressions of Dion with a series of attack ads depicting him as weak and indecisive.
The Tories are also attempting to drive wedges between Dion and his erstwhile leadership rivals before he can cement his grip on the Liberal caucus, most of which supported other contenders.
There has been some low-level grumbling among Liberal MPs about Dion's inordinate focus on climate change and open dissension over his decision to support withdrawal of contentious provisions of the Anti-terrorism Act.
The Tories last week gleefully stirred the pot, drawing reporters' attention to the fact that Liberal MPs gave deputy leader Michael Ignatieff a standing ovation after a rousing performance in question period, in stark contrast to Dion's scripted queries often delivered in halting English. They also circulated comments by Rae contradicting the leader's stance on the Anti-terrorism Act.
Still, outside the confines of Parliament Hill, Kennedy maintains Dion is scoring well with Canadians who retain a positive image of the new leader. He has been getting "extremely positive" receptions at townhall meetings across the country and more are planned in the coming weeks.
Kennedy interprets Tory efforts to discredit Dion as proof that they're scared of his potential.
"There's a slight whiff of desperation around all of this. If they're worried it's because there are some ingredients that they can't match, which is Mr. Dion is a leader with a mission, Mr. Harper is not."
Then again, the Tories' pre-emptive strikes may reflect a more ominous reality.
As one prominent Liberal puts it: "There are certainly people who say Harper looks across the (Commons) aisle and says, 'I can beat this guy.' "
