A new poll suggests Prime Minister Stephen Harper has chosen the most opportune time to push for an election, with the Conservatives enjoying an eight-point lead at the end of a quiet summer recess -- and before a possible economic downturn.

The latest Strategic Counsel Poll, conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, indicates that Conservative support rose sharply in the past few months (percentage-point change from a June 6-9 poll in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 37 per cent (+5)
  • Liberals: 29 per cent (-1)
  • New Democrats: 17 per cent (-1)
  • Green Party: 9 per cent (-1)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 8 per cent (-2)

It's the largest lead the Conservatives have had over the Liberals since last March, when they were briefly ahead by 11 points. In addition, the latest poll suggests 49 per cent of Canadians feel Canada is on the right track, while only 34 per cent feel the country is on the wrong track.

By contrast, roughly 70 per cent of voters in the United States think their country is headed in the wrong direction.

The results suggest Liberal Leader Stephane Dion must work hard at convincing Canadians they need a change in government. He must also attract voters from the Green Party and NDP by convincing those supporters the Liberals have a better chance at preventing a large Conservative victory.

"What the Liberals have to do is essentially turn this into a referendum on whether Stephen Harper can be trusted with a majority," Peter Donolo, vice president of the Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca on Monday.

The Conservatives have also made strong gains in voter-rich Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, the Tories have pulled ahead of the Liberals for the first time in about half a year (percentage-point change from a June 6-9 poll in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 41 per cent (+10)
  • Liberals: 35 per cent (-4)
  • New Democrats: 15 per cent (-3)
  • Green Party: 10 per cent (-2)

Support for the Conservatives had fallen at the start of summer, after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty engaged in a war of words with Premier Dalton McGuinty over the province's struggling manufacturing industry.

"They were on the defensive over Flaherty's comments a couple months ago, and it seems that with the heat down on that issue, votes have gravitated towards them," said Donolo. "They've got to keep that from bumping up as an issue again; they've got to keep Flaherty's comments under lock."

Donolo told CTV.ca that Ontario remains in a position to decide the election. The province has 106 of 308 seats in the House of Commons.

"I know it's a clich锟�, but it's very true: Ontario has the potential to decide the election --whether it will be a Conservative or Liberal minority, or whether it might possibly be a Conservative majority."

In Quebec, the Conservatives have jumped seven points but the Bloc still has a strong lead (percentage-point change from a June 6-9 poll in brackets):

  • Bloc Quebecois: 34 per cent (-12)
  • Liberals: 26 per cent (+4)
  • Conservatives: 23 per cent (+7)
  • New Democrats: 12 per cent (+5)
  • Green Party: 5 per cent (-3)

Economy top issue

According to the poll, 33 per cent of Canadians feel the economy is getting worse, and only 13 per cent believe it's getting better. The possibility of an economic downturn has become the top political issue facing the country.

That could be difficult news for Dion, who has made the environment and his "Green Shift" plan a central issue to use against the Conservatives.

"The risk here is that he's shown up at a baseball game in full hockey gear," said Donolo.

"He's got to find a way to pivot over to the economy, particularly in Ontario and Quebec where there's more concern about (the economy)."

When respondents were asked which issue they thought was the most important for the election, the environment and healthcare also emerged as central points of interest (percentage-point change from a Feb. 14-17 poll in brackets):

  • Economic issues (including unemployment): 20 per cent (+5)
  • Environmental issues: 15 per cent (+3)
  • Healthcare: 14 per cent (-3)
  • Afghanistan/Iraq/Terrorism/military: 7 per cent (-9)

For the top issue, 45 per cent thought Harper would be best able to deal with tough economic times, compared to 21 per cent for Dion. And when voters were asked who would be more concerned about the economy of their particular province, 40 per cent replied Harper and only 26 per cent said Dion.

But when respondents were asked who would be better at making progress with climate change, 40 per cent said Dion and 27 per cent said Harper. Dion also had a slight edge on who would better respect the views of others, getting 33 per cent compared to Harper's 30 per cent.

Harper vs. Dion: leadership

The poll asked potential voters about several leadership qualities, and how they applied to Harper and Dion. Across Canada, most respondents preferred Harper.

The results suggest Dion has had a difficult time convincing Canadians he would be an effective prime minister:

Who would be better when it comes to...

Being prime minister of a majority government:

  • Harper: 46 per cent
  • Dion: 22 per cent

Being easygoing and likeable:

  • Harper: 38 per cent
  • Dion: 29 per cent

Standing up to the United States:

  • Harper: 42 per cent
  • Dion: 29 per cent

Caring about people like me:

  • Harper: 30 per cent
  • Dion: 28 per cent

"I would say that Harper currently holds an advantage, but we'll see what happens over the course of the campaign," said Donolo. "Right now, one reason he holds an advantage is that it's been a few months since the government has been on the defensive in the House of Commons from attacks. It's been a relatively quiet summer."

He also noted that Paul Martin had a similar advantage in 2006, along with Kim Campbell in 1993, but both former prime ministers eventually lost their elections.

Technical notes

  • The poll was conducted between Aug. 25-31 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
  • The national sample size is 1,000 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
  • The Ontario sample size is 383 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points.
  • In Quebec, the sample size is 243 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
  • Results are based on tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.