The number of Canadians with diabetes is likely to skyrocket in the next decade, new projections show, and that could set up what's being called an "economic tsunami."
The report from the Canadian Diabetes Association states that by next year, there will be 2.5 million Canadians with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes; by 2020, that number will rise to 3.7 million.
That means the number of diabetics in Canada in 2020 will have nearly tripled the numbers from 2000, when only 1.3 million Canadians were living with the disease. Today, nearly one in four Canadians either has diabetes or pre-diabetes, though many remain undiagnosed.
The rates are soaring because of Canada's changing ethnic makeup, growing rates of obesity, sedentary lifestyle and aging population, write the authors of the report called "An Economic Tsunami: the Cost of Diabetes in Canada."
Along with those rising illness rates, the cost of treating the disease -- Type 1 and Type 2 -- will also soar to $12.2 billion in 2010 and to almost $17 billion in the next decade -- nearly double the costs of a decade ago.
Those costs include not just the medications and tests diabetics use to manage their condition, but the costs when patients don't control it. Uncontrolled diabetes can lead to nerve damage, lower limb amputations, kidney failure, blindness and heart disease.
Not only is diabetes a personal crisis for people with the disease, it's "a financial crisis for the health-care system... consuming an ever-larger share of provincial and territorial health-care budgets," the report states.
The Canadian Diabetes Association made their eye-opening projections based on a new tool called the Canadian Diabetes Cost Model. It's the first diabetes model created using all Canadian data, rather than extrapolating numbers based on U.S. data.
"The results are a sobering reminder of the action required to reduce the burden of diabetes in Canada while improving the individual health for people living with the disease," Ellen Malcolmson, the president and CEO of the Canadian Diabetes Association, said in news release Monday.
If diabetes rates continue to rise unchecked, the burden of diabetes will continue to grow so that:
- the number of people diagnosed with diabetes in Canada will nearly double between 2000 and 2010, from 1.3 million to 2.5 million (a rate that climbs to more than 3 million when you include Canadians with undiagnosed diabetes)
- the total population with diabetes will rise from 4.2 per cent in 2000 to 7.3 per cent in 2010, to 9.9 per cent by 2020
- the cost of the disease will rise by another $4.7 billion by 2020
While some of the factors leading to rising diabetes rates cannot be controlled -- such as an aging population -- many others can, say the report authors. The key, they say, is diagnosing the disease early and managing it properly so complications can be averted.
To stop the growth of the disease, the report calls for more resources to help patients manage their disease, a new Canadian diabetes strategy as well as an aboriginal diabetes initiative, and more investment in high-quality research.
They also want a revised tax strategy that addresses the out-of-pocket costs for people living with diabetes.
Many patients spend between $1,000 and $15,000 a year on products such as test strips and medication, forcing some patients to abandon aggressive treatment. Those decisions end up costing the public health system, since it can lead to expensive complications and even more expensive medication costs.
