The Conservatives are holding steady but the New Democrats have bled support to the Liberals, according to a new poll released Thursday morning.
The numbers from Nanos Research show the Conservatives at 39.1 per cent support, just up from 38.6 per cent in the last round of polls.
However, support for the NDP has dropped from 19.9 per cent to 15.9 per cent.
The Liberals, by contrast, have seen their support rise from 27.6 per cent to 32.7 per cent.
The Bloc Quebecois nudged down slightly from 10.1 per cent to 8.7 per cent, while the Greens went from 3.8 to 3.7 per cent.
Pollster Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos research, said the numbers could be a signal of the first shift of the campaign. But he conceded that a few more days of polling are required to confirm whether the trend is temporary or whether it marks an important trend that will continue through the campaign.
When the numbers were broken down by region, the Liberals saw growth in Atlantic Canada, B.C. and the Prairies. In Ontario and Quebec the numbers were steady.
The Conservatives, by comparison, saw a drop in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, but growth in B.C. and the all-important battleground of Ontario where they were up 4 percentage points over the last poll.
The NDP was within the margin of error in all regions except B.C. and Ontario. In B.C., support was shown to have dropped from 29.7 per cent support, to 19.4 per cent.
In Ontario, NDP support went from 23 per cent to 16.3 per cent.
The poll also showed that 56.7 per cent of respondents now consider party policies to be a key factor in their voting. Previously, 48.3 per cent considered the platforms to be a key factor.
Health care still a top issue
Also on Thursday, tracking showed that health care remained the most pressing issue for Canadians, despite a considerable focus on the economy by the major party leaders.
The Nanos Research poll echoes earlier findings that health care had outstripped jobs and the economy as the chief concern for Canadians.
When asked to name, unprompted, what their most important national issue of concern was, almost 30 per cent said health care. However, it appears that the economy is again coming to the forefront as a key issue (percentage-point change from March 28 survey in brackets):
- Health care: 27.2 per cent (-1.3)
- Jobs / Economy: 19.7 per cent (0.2)
- Education: 7.7 per cent (-0.2)
- High taxes: 6.2 per cent (+1.4)
- Environment: 4.4 per cent (0.3)
- Unsure: 12.1 per cent
Meanwhile, Stephen Harper led the other party chiefs in the poll's Leadership Index, according to the poll:
- Conservative Leader Stephen Harper: 105.3
- Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff: 46.2
- NDP Leader Jack Layton: 39.8
- Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe: 15.6
- Green Party Leader Elizabeth May: 10.0
The leadership scores are an aggregate of three questions. The responders were asked which of the federal leaders would best be described as the most trustworthy, the most competent and had the best vision for Canada. Those numbers were then added together for the final score.
