The Conservative Party is solidifying support in key battleground ridings surveyed by The Strategic Counsel, while Liberal and NDP voters indicate they are nearly twice more likely than Conservative voters to switch their support between now and the election.

The latest Battleground 2008 poll from The Strategic Counsel, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, surveyed voters in key ridings in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec.

Here's the Sept. 22-24 poll breakdown with the percentage change from the 2006 election in brackets:

B.C. Battleground Ridings:

  • Conservative: 46 per cent (+11)
  • Liberal: 25 per cent (-8)
  • NDP: 18 per cent (-9)
  • Green: 12 per cent (+7)

Ontario Battleground Ridings:

  • Conservative: 44 per cent (+7)
  • Liberal: 29 per cent (-10)
  • NDP: 18 per cent (-1)
  • Green: 9 per cent (+4)

Quebec Battleground Ridings:

  • Bloc Quebecois: 31 per cent (-6)
  • Conservatives: 25 per cent (+2)
  • Liberals: 23 per cent (-5)
  • NDP: 17 per cent  (+9)
  • Green Party: 4 per cent

When these voters were asked: "How likely is it that you might switch your vote to your second choice between now and election day?," the results showed Conservative voters more likely to stand firm.

Voters in Battleground Ridings from all three provinces who said they were likely to switch their vote to their second choice:

  • Conservative: 20 per cent
  • Liberal: 38 per cent
  • NDP: 38 per cent
  • Bloc: 24 per cent
  • Green: 41 per cent

Poll details:

The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present findings from three surveys of the Battleground Regions of Ontario (n=420), Quebec (n=405) and British Columbia (n=390)

Forty-five of the most hotly contested ridings from Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia comprise the Battleground 2008.

Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia were chosen because they possess the highest concentration of ridings where multiple Parties are likely to have the toughest competition.

In the Federal Election of 2006 and subsequent By-Elections, these forty-five ridings were home to the tightest races in the most populous provinces in the country.

The forty-five ridings consist of the 20 tightest races in Ontario, the 15 closest races in Quebec and the 10 tightest races in British Columbia from the 2006 Federal Election and subsequent byelections.

Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 ridings constituting the Battleground 2008. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.

Data collection for this report was conducted between September 4th to 24th, 2008.

Sample size and margin of error:

British Columbia battleground ridings (Sept. 22-24) 390 (+-5%)

(Sept. 23-24) 260 (+-6.1%)

Ontario battleground ridings (Sep 22-24) 420 (+-4.8%) 

(Sep 23-24) 280 (+-5.9%)  

Quebec battleground ridings (Sep 22-24) 405 (+-4.9%)

(Sep 23-24) 270 (+-6.0%)