The latest poll from Nanos Research shows the national numbers remaining relatively stable, with a five-point lead for the Conservatives over the NDP at this point in the campaign.
The NDP numbers continue to trend up in Ontario and also showed an increase in support in British Columbia.
The latest national numbers in the Nanos poll done for CTV and The Globe and Mail (March 15 poll results in brackets):
- Conservatives: 36.4 per cent (38.6 per cent)
- NDP: 31.2 per cent (19.9 per cent)
- Liberals: 22.0 per cent (27.6 per cent)
- Bloc Quebecos: 5.7 per cent (10.1 per cent)
- Green Party : 4.0 per cent (3.8 per cent)
While the Conservative lead in Ontario and British Columbia is narrowing, it is widening in the prairie provinces.
"I think the spectre of the NDP doing well might be helping to motivate core Conservative supporters," pollster Nik Nanos told 麻豆影视 Channel Friday.
"But the problem is: it's the Prairies and the Conservatives are already very strong there," Nanos said, suggesting the extra support won't necessarily mean extra seats.
Nanos added that it's becoming clear that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will not be winning that majority government that he so covets.
"I never rule out impossibilities because crazy things happen between now and voting day, but it's unlikely; it would be very difficult for the Conservatives to form a majority government," Nanos said.
Prairies: Conservative support has increased to 60.0 per cent, while the NDP are in second at 22.8 per cent, the Liberals are at 13.3 per cent and the Greens are at 3.9 per cent.
Quebec: Support for the New Democrats remains steady at 41.4 per cent, with the BQ at 23.6 per cent, the Liberals at 16.1 per cent, the Conservatives at 15.8 per cent and the Greens at 1.9 per cent.
Ontario: The Tories are at 36.3 per cent followed by the Liberals at 29.8 per cent, the NDP at 28.5 per cent and the Green Party at 5.1 per cent.
British Columbia: Although the Tories maintain their support in B.C. at 43.0 per cent, the NDP registered a noticeable increase in support to 35.2 per cent followed by the Liberals at 18.2 per cent and the Greens at 3.7 per cent.
Full details on the poll results are available
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is plus-minus 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.
