A solid Conservative lead in Ontario's 20 key Battleground 2008 has slipped through the party's fingers in the second week of the campaign, according to the latest results of nightly polling by The Strategic Counsel.
The latest Battleground 2008 poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives are having a rocky ride in these key ridings during the campaign:
- a start of 41 per cent (Sept. 4-6)
- a high of 45 per cent (Sept. 9-13)
- and now a dip to 35 per cent (Sept. 15-17)
And for the first time in this campaign, the Liberals are in the lead with 37 per cent support in the Ontario battleground ridings, having started the campaign at 29 per cent (Sept. 4-6).
The NDP is at 19 per cent in this latest poll, and the Green party is at 10 per cent.
"A week ago, Conservatives had these ridings in the palm of their hands," pollster Peter Donolo told 麻豆影视. "Now it's slipping through their fingers."
And in Quebec, the Conservatives are failing to make the inroads they will need to form a majority government.
The Tories are essentially in a three-way race with the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals, while the NDP and Green Party are showing greater strength than in the 2006 election.
In the 15 chosen battleground ridings in Quebec, the Conservatives have 27 per cent support, the Liberals 26 per cent, and the Bloc are at 26 per cent. Conservatives have dropped five points since the start of the campaign on the Sept. 4-6 poll, but are still ahead of their 2006 election results of 23 per cent.
If these numbers hold, the Bloc could possibly pick up seats on Oct. 14, especially in some ridings in Montreal.
In British Columbia battlegrounds, Conservatives have held steady, from a Sept. 4-6 start of 45 per cent (up 10 points from 2006 results). They are now tracking at 43 per cent support in the 10 tightest races in the province.
"It's almost as if there's three separate campaigns going on in these regions," Donolo said, noting how the numbers in each province are telling very different stories.
In B.C. Battleground Ridings, on the question of 'How would they vote today', the breakdown is (difference from 2006 election in brackets):
- Conservative candidate: 43 (+8)
- Liberal candidate: 28 (-5)
- NDP candidate: 18 (-9)
- Green Party candidate: 12(+7)
In Ontario Battleground Ridings, on the question of 'How would they vote today', the breakdown is (difference from 2006 election in brackets):
- Conservative candidate: 35 (-2)
- Liberal candidate: 37 (-2)
- NDP candidate: 19 (0)
- Green Party candidate: 10 (+5)
In Quebec Battleground Ridings, on the question of 'How would they vote today', the breakdown is (difference from 2006 election in brackets:
- Conservative candidate: 27 (+4)
- Liberal candidate: 26 (-2)
- NDP candidate: 12 (+4)
- Bloc Quebecois 26 (-11)
- Green Party candidate: 10 (+6)
Poll details:
The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present findings from three surveys of the Battleground Regions of Ontario (n=420), Quebec (n=405) and British Columbia (n=390)
Forty-five of the most hotly contested ridings from Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia comprise the Battleground 2008.
Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia were chosen because they possess the highest concentration of ridings where multiple Parties are likely to have the toughest competition.
In the Federal Election of 2006 and subsequent By-Elections, these forty-five ridings were home to the tightest races in the most populous provinces in the country.
The forty-five ridings consist of the 20 tightest races in Ontario, the 15 closest races in Quebec and the 10 tightest races in British Columbia from the 2006 Federal Election and subsequent byelections.
Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 ridings constituting the Battleground 2008. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.
Data collection for this report was conducted between September 4th to 17th, 2008.
Sample size and margin of error (Sep 15-17):
- British Columbia battleground ridings 390 (+-5%)
- Ontario battleground ridings 420 (+-4.8%)
- Quebec battleground ridings 405 (+-4.9%)
