In the last week of campaigning before the Canadians go to the polls, Conservatives are rapidly shedding support in the battleground ridings that could determine the outcome of the election.
The drop in support coincides with a sharp decline in Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's favourable ratings, particularly in Quebec.
"He has gone from hero to zero in just a matter of weeks," pollster Peter Donolo of The Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca. "(The Conservatives) were going build their majority in Quebec -- now they are fighting for their political lives there to hold on to the very modest inroads they made in the last election."
In the 15 tight ridings in Quebec, only 40 per cent of those polled had a favourable impression of Harper, a drop of 18 percentage points from those polled a month earlier.
The new Battleground 2008 poll of 45 close races in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and the Globe and Mail, comes less than a week before Canadians head to the ballot boxes on Oct. 14.
In polling conducted Oct.5-7, the Conservatives lost ground in all three provincial battlegrounds over the past week. In Ontario and British Columbia, the Liberals have almost pulled even with the Tories.
"The Conservatives should be happy the election is only six days away," Donolo said. "They've had a very difficult week."
In Quebec, the Conservatives are now sitting third, behind the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals, in the battleground ridings.
The Conservatives dwindling numbers coincide with a period of global economic uncertainty, even as Harper had repeatedly said that Canada's economy remains strong.
Donolo said that some gaffes made by Harper have hurt his party in the polls.
"That's the problem when you put the entire campaign on the shoulders of the leader . . . if the leader stumbles then there's not a lot to cushion to party," he said.
In Quebec, Harper's comment that "ordinary Canadians" don't care about the arts have really hurt his numbers.
On Tuesday, the last day of Oct. 5-7 polling, Harper said the economic downturn has created "buying opportunities" on the stock market -- which has led to opposition cries that he is "out of touch."
Ontario polling
According to polling conducted Oct. 5-7 in Ontario's 20 battleground ridings, the Conservatives held 35 per cent support, a loss of five per cent from polling done from Oct.1-4.
The new numbers are down a full 10 points from the Tories' highest mark of 45 per cent in those same ridings in late September. The Liberals are closing quickly, a trend that could be an election game changer: (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):
- Conservative: 35 per cent (-5)
- Liberals: 31 per cent (+3)
- NDP: 24 per cent (+3)
- Bloc Quebecois: n/a
- Green Party: 10 per cent (-2)
Another sobering finding for Harper in these battleground ridings is that 53 per cent of those polled said they thought it was time for a change in government, compared to only 36 per cent who thought it the wrong time for a change.
The Conservatives are losing support in the all-important 905 battlegrounds of Ontario, down to 39 per cent support. That is a 10-point decline from their September high.
"The silver lining (for the Tories) is that their loss is not directly the Liberals gain," Donolo said.
He said that the NDP and the Greens could draw support away the Liberals in close races, allowing the Conservatives beat the split.
But a higher percentage of Green and NDP voters in this poll say they are willing to change their vote. Of NDP voters, 31 per cent say they might change their vote, and 35 per cent of Green voters say the same.
If those voters decide to move to the Liberals to counter the Conservatives, next Tuesday could be very close in Ontario.
Quebec polling
The Conservatives hoped to make major inroads in Quebec, but their support in the battleground ridings is dwindling, putting a majority all but out of reach.
The Bloc Quebecois, which was floundering before the election call, has been given new life over the campaign :(Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll)
- Bloc Quebecois: 37 per cent (-3)
- Liberal: 24 per cent (+2)
- Conservative: 20 per cent (-1)
- NDP: 13 per cent (same)
- Green Party: 6 per cent (+2)
British Columbia polling
In British Columbia's 10 battlegrounds, the Tories are rapidly bleeding support and the race is now a statistical tie as the Liberals are within the margin of error.
Here are the parties' results in B.C. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Oct. 1-4 poll):
- Conservative: 32 per cent (-6)
- Liberal: 30 per cent (+3)
- NDP: 24 per cent (+2)
- Bloc: n/a
- Green Party: 14 per cent (+1)
The Conservatives had as much as 46 per cent support in September polling in B.C. battlegrounds.
Harper's favourable ratings lower
Harper's personal stock has taken a solid hit in the Oct. 5-7 poll compared to polling a month ago.
In British Columbia battlegrounds, those who as favourable impression of Harper dropped to 52 per cent, compared to 61 per cent a month earlier.
In Ontario, 52 per cent of respondents thought favourably of Harper, a drop of ten percentage points from early September.
In Quebec, Harper is sitting at 40 per cent favourable, well down from 58 per cent in September.
"The Quebec loss is monumental, it's very rare to see a complete reversal inside a few weeks in a political campaign," Donolo said.
But Harper's loss isn't necessarily the Liberals gain.
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's favourable ratings have improved modestly over the campaign in B.C. and Ontario battlegrounds but still only sit at 43 per cent and 41 per cent, respectively.
"In a sense, if (Dion) was better perceived in B.C. and Ontario, his party would be picking up more of that Conservative vote," Donolo said.
However in Quebec, Dion has improved remarkably in his favourable ratings, in part spurred by a strong showing in the French leaders' debates.
His favourable rating sat at 51 per cent, compared to 36 per cent a month earlier.
NDP Leader Jack Layton had the best favourable ratings by far in this poll. In B.C., it was 62 per cent, with an impressive 70 per cent in Ontario and 71 per cent in Quebec.
Technical notes:
The poll was conducted from Oct. 5-7 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The B.C. battleground ridings have a sample size of 390 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points.
The Ontario battleground ridings have a sample size of 420 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
The Quebec battleground ridings have a sample size of 405 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 battleground ridings. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.
