The world will likely see more multi-year La Ni帽a events due to global warming, contributing to a higher risk of extreme weather events, .
La Ni帽a refers to a period of cooler than normal waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. This weather phenomenon typically occurs approximately every three to five years and lasts one to two years, .
La Ni帽a is the colder counterpart of El Ni帽o, as part of the broader El Ni帽o鈥揝outhern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, which is characterized by the shifts in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific. The ENSO pattern alternates irregularly between warm El Ni帽o and cold La Ni帽a events, impacting global weather patterns, agriculture and ecosystems.
Based on multiple climate models collected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), researchers from China, Australia and the U.S. reported a 鈥渟ignificant increase" in the projected frequency of multi-year La Ni帽a events over a 100-year period.
They projected an increase in frequency ranging from 19 per cent, plus or minus 11 per cent, in a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario to 33 per cent, plus or minus 13 per cent, in a high emissions scenario.
The study also explains the conditions underlying the projected increase.
"Under present-day climate conditions, a strong El Ni帽o in the boreal winter induces a negative North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM)-like response in the subtropical North Pacific, producing a La Ni帽a in the ensuing winter with meridionally extensive sea surface temperature (SST) and easterly wind anomalies," said Jia Fan, a co-author of the study from the Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in a news release.
These easterly wind anomalies are further intensified by faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The study suggests that the slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly wind anomalies are what ultimately enables the cold anomalies of a La Ni帽a to persist for longer than a year.
Compared to single-year La Ni帽a events, multi-year La Ni帽a events such as the one that lasted from 2020 to 2022 create higher or cumulative risk of extreme weather events, the study notes, including droughts, wildfires, flooding and altered patterns of hurricanes, cyclones and monsoons across the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
La Ni帽a increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought. In Canada, La Ni帽a winters are also typically wetter and colder, .
"These findings suggest that weather extremes as seen during the 2020鈥2022 La Ni帽a will probably occur more frequently in the near future," said Geng Tao from Ocean University of China, co-author of the study, in a news release.
The results of this study strengthen calls to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions 鈥渢o alleviate the adverse impacts鈥 of increased multi-year La Ni帽a events, Fan said.
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