Â鶹ӰÊÓ

In reaction to a new UN report on climate change, a Canadian scientist is calling for government-supported warning systems to stave off thousands of potential deaths from worsening heat waves.

The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change won't be released until next month but its contents were described by scientist Gordon McBean, the chair of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science, who has seen the document.

The report will say the vulnerability of specific regions depends on the effectiveness and timing of adaptation strategies -- a point also made by former environment commissioner Johanne Gelinas in her last report before being fired recently.

"We are certainly going to see many more hot days. The number of hot days in southern Ontario will go up by a factor of three or more by the mid-century. By the end of the century, we'll be at another factor of three again or six in total," McBean told Â鶹ӰÊÓnet.

"The question of how many people die will depend on quite frankly our adaptation strategies and our ability to cope with that kind of heat stress."

A heat wave in August 2003 killed 35,000 people in Western Europe and scientists warn a similar tragedy could occur in North America.

Protective measures would include warning systems, architectural changes, protection of green space, and community programs to monitor the well-being of people living alone.

"This needs to be done by all levels of government. We have in the city of Toronto already a heat warning system. Those kind of systems need to be enhanced and more widely spread and coordinated," McBean said.

Canadian coastal cities at risk

The UN study will identify coastal areas sensitive to sea level rise and cite Charlottetown as an example of a city vulnerable to increased flooding and storm surges.

Risks to infrastructure in northern and costal areas are also a key area identified in the report and the risk of water shortages on the Prairies and of sharp drops in the Great Lakes water levels that could interfere with navigation.

"The design of city's infrastructure is a major factor and also our agricultural policies; where things will grow in the future compared to where they will grow now, policies on use of water resources both for agriculture, industry and municipalities," McBean said.

"The major railway line that connects Halifax with the rest of Canada runs along about a foot above sea level along the Bay of Fundy."

"We should be now doing the investments to make those critical transportation facilities less vulnerable by moving them inland.''

Adaptation

So far, Canada's debate about climate change has focused almost entirely on how to reduce greenhouse emissions, and some environmentalists have resisted talking about adaptation thinking it implies surrender on the emissions issue.

But scientists say a certain amount of warming is inevitable regardless of how much emissions are cut. That's largely because the oceans absorb heat gradually, delaying the effect of past emissions.

"We need a balance. Clearly we need to reduce our emissions because we're looking at a climatic change through the end of this century that is already going to be very large and if we don't reduced emissions it could be much worse," McBean said.

"We also need, at the same time, a strategy of what you might better call governments providing the capacity for people and themselves to make informed choices, to make their investment decisions recognizing that the future is different and will be different than what was that of the past."

He said there is an urgent need for more research to guide adaptation strategies in specific sectors and regions.

Most such research in Canada has been co-ordinated by the Canadian Foundation for Atmospheric Sciences, which received $110 million from the previous Liberal government.

The money has now been allocated, and no new funding has been received from the new Conservative government, said McBean.

"So far, at least in a public way, the missing ingredient in our national strategies has been on the question of adaptation policies, said McBean.

"We have not had an active federal strategy, a nationally co-ordinated strategy on adaptation."

With files from the Canadian Press