If the federal Conservatives gain seats in the Maritimes in Tuesday's federal election, political analysts say fear of the Liberal's carbon tax proposal in rural parts of the region may get credit for swaying votes.
Don Desserud, political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, said there are ridings in the province where the Conservatives have been able to sway voters on the Liberal Green Shift plan.
"Some of these seats are being affected, or at least the Conservatives are making sure everybody thinks they're being affected by the proposal for the Liberal Green Shift and that there's the possibility of an economic problem if that shift goes through," he said in an interview.
"That again is the Conservative message, but the Liberals are having a hard time countering that."
The greatest chance for the Conservatives to change the political map in Atlantic Canada appears to be in New Brunswick.
Analysts have said Premier Danny Williams's ABC (Anything But Conservative) campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador could shut out the Tories in the province's seven seats.
In Nova Scotia, the Conservatives have targeted West Nova, which is held by Liberal Robert Thibault, who beat Conservative candidate Greg Kerr -- a former provincial finance minister -- by just over 500 votes in 2006.
Kerr is running again in West Nova, where a local newspaper says the carbon tax has been referred to as the carburetor tax.
The federal parties have focused attention on West Nova, which is considered a swing riding. Thibault is a former fisheries minister and his riding has a strong dependence on agriculture and the fishery.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was in Yarmouth last weekend to announce new funding to help Atlantic Canada and other regions cope with economic hardship. His presence in the riding so late in the campaign was seen as an indication that the Tories believe they have a chance in West Nova.
At dissolution, the Liberals held 20 of Atlantic Canada's 32 seats. The Conservatives had eight seats and the NDP three. There was one Independent, Nova Scotia MP Bill Casey, who is expected to win his seat again.
In New Brunswick, Desserud said the Conservatives could make a gain in Madawaska-Restigouche, a large agricultural riding in the province's northwest.
"That's a seat that is going to be tricky for the Liberals to hold onto," he said. "The message in that riding has been consistently that the Liberal party would not be the party that would help the economy of that part of New Brunswick."
Liberal MP Jean-Claude D'Amours has held the seat since 2004, and beat Conservative candidate Jean-Pierre Ouellet by less than 900 votes in 2006. Both are running again.
A vacant seat in Fredericton, where Liberal Andy Scott has decided not to run again, could also swing to the Tories, said Desserud.
In 1993, Scott became the first Liberal in 40 years to win the riding and held onto it for 15 years.
"With Andy Scott not there, that's always been a question of whether it was a Liberal seat or an Andy Scott seat," said Desserud.
"With Andy Scott not there the Conservatives feel they can make some significant gains."
Political observers also think the riding of Moncton could be close.
In Prince Edward Island, where the four ridings have been solidly Liberal since 1988, there is speculation that the riding of Egmont could be won by the Conservatives.
"There seems to be a feeling in the riding that at least one riding of the four in P.E.I. should go Conservative because it's very important to have somebody on the government side," said Ian Dowbiggan, a history professor at the University of Prince Edward Island.
Gail Shea is the Tory candidate in Egmont and Dowbiggan says she has "a real good chance" of beating Liberal Keith Milligan.
"If she does (win), the other big rumour is that she will be in a future Tory cabinet," he said.
Egmont had been held by Liberal Joe McGuire, but he isn't running this time.
Dowbiggan said the riding of Malpeque, held by Liberal agriculture critic Wayne Easter, is also expected to be tight because farmers and fishermen in the area worry about the carbon tax.
"There are a lot of people who are not crazy about Mr. Dion and are worried about the implications of the carbon tax, especially as it affects diesel fuel," he said.
