KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan are preparing for a "very different winter" amid signs that suggest Taliban militants plan to ramp up their attacks in the coming months in an effort to influence debate about international troop levels in the country.
In past years, Taliban attacks have declined markedly in winter months due the logistical challenge of travel, particularly in the country's foreboding mountain passes.
But a series of open-source intelligence reports suggest Taliban commanders are seeking to exploit wavering levels of international support for the Afghan mission, the commander of Canadian troops said Tuesday.
"We... know for a fact that the insurgents aren't leaving this winter," said Lt. Col. Jerome Walsh, the battle group commander of Task Force Kandahar.
"They recognized key decisions are being made by Obama, by the British, by the Germans, by the Danes, by Canada and by others as to force levels and future commitments."
The intelligence reports suggest Canadian soldiers will be targeted with continuing persistence. Last week two IED blasts killed two soldiers and injured two others in separate incidents.
"There is no doubt about it, you can expect throughout the winter that we will continue to be dealing with the same types of incidents, same numbers, same brazen attacks," Walsh said.
"This is going to be a different winter."
Kandahar's political leaders have also noticed higher concentrations of Taliban insurgents than is usual for this time of year.
"Taliban commanders are telling their people to stay in Kandahar, to not go to Pakistan, to disrupt the elections," Ahmed Wali Karzai, the head of the Kandahar provincial council, told The Canadian Press in a recent interview.
The Taliban appear emboldened by the decision Monday to cancel a planned presidential run-off vote between incumbent president Hamid Karzai and challenger Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, who decided on the weekend to withdraw from the race.
In a communique released Tuesday, the group credited its intimidation campaign, which included an attack on a UN guesthouse in Kabul that left eight dead, for the abrupt end to the campaign.
"Our brave mujahedeen were able to disrupt the entire process," the statement said. "Even the air strikes and ground forces were not able to stop our mujahedeen from their attacks."
Karzai's acclamation as president was quickly welcomed by the White House, which has been waiting for a resolution to the election fiasco before making a decision on how many additional troops to send to the country.
By attempting to sustain the levels of violence during the traditional "fighting season," the Taliban is hoping to test the American commitment to fighting the insurgency. October was the bloodiest month for U.S. forces in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion.
The Taliban's recent posturing, both on the ground and in the media, is further evidence the group is refining its tactics to increase its political clout in the West.
"The biggest achievement the Taliban (this year) has made is in promoting the debate about the merits of the war at home," said Richard Barrett, the head of the UN's Taliban and al Qaeda monitoring unit and a former British intelligence officer.
"They have made fantastic strides in the propaganda war."
Those strides have included an update of a manual for Taliban field commanders, known as the "Rule Book for the Mujahedin of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan," released this spring.
Mullah Omar's additions are noteworthy for stressing the importance of avoiding civilian deaths.
"Carry out suicide attacks only on high-value and important targets, so that the brave youth of the Islamic nation are not wasted targeting unimportant and ordinary targets," the book reportedly reads.
Canadian military officials who patrol Kandahar city have noticed an increasing reluctance by the Taliban to target civilians.
"The Taliban respect the people because it's their people as well," said Maj. Frederic Jean, a commander of a stabilization unit based at the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kandahar city.
"I'm not saying it's a city without any dangers. But it's a city where there is danger for the police, government workers and those who work for ISAF."
Of course some may question the average militant's dedication to the dictates of the manual, given UN estimates that the majority of civilian deaths are caused by insurgents.
"It may not weigh down the pockets of many people in the field, but it encourages the perception that they are more concerned about the population," said Barrett.
The Taliban commander Mullah Omar has also hinted recently that he is seeking to distance himself from al Qaeda.
Analysts have been tracking an apparent debate within the insurgent community over Omar's insistence on the national character of the movement he leads, in contrast with al Qaeda's internationalist aspirations.
Many insurgents sympathetic to al Qaeda are said to have reacted angrily when Omar expressed his intent to establish friendly relations with Afghanistan's neighbours.
"I think the Taliban recognize that to chose to identify themselves too closely with al Qaeda would make more difficult for them to take over Afghanistan," said Barrett.
"It makes it more difficult for foreign troops to withdraw."
