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    • Migration to Canada reaching 50-year highs, especially among non-permanent residents: StatCan

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    In 2023, Canada鈥檚 population of non-permanent residents (NPRs) grew by more than half a million people, part of the steepest single-year rise in at least five decades of available data.

    In a report last week, Statistics Canada (StatCan) counted a total of 2.5 million NPRs as of this October, up from 1.7 million the same time last year. The 2023 growth shatters previous year-to-year records in the available data, tripling the increase of nearly 170,000 between the summers of 2018 and 2019.

    NPR totals have grown by just over 80 per cent since the fourth quarter of 2021, the data shows.

    In an emailed statement, StatCan told CTVNews.ca that 2023鈥檚 NPR growth could be attributed in part to the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions and increases to work and study permits processed by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

    This year also saw StatCan update its methodology for estimating NPR population data; a change that the agency clarified had, in 2021/22, a roughly five per cent impact on the estimated growth in NPR totals (196,000, compared with an estimate of 205,000 under the older protocol).

    鈥淭his is our usual practice, especially after a census, as updating our methods enables us to remain relevant,鈥 StatCan said in the statement issued Wednesday. 鈥淭he impact of these adjustments on the total size of the Canadian population is minimal.鈥

    Jeffrey Reitz, a professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Toronto, says the federal government has embraced increasing migration for years as a reflection of economic interests.

    In an interview with CTVNews.ca, Reitz pointed to the Advisory Council on Economic Growth, established in 2016 by the then-newly elected Trudeau government. The council, described in a Department of Finance announcement as comprising "Canadian and international business and academic leaders,鈥 published a report the following year that recommended Canada increase its annual permanent economic immigration to 450,000 from 300,000, over five years.

    鈥淭he government鈥檚 done, pretty much, what business leaders have requested,鈥 Reitz said.

    Former council member and McGill University economics Prof. Christopher Ragan was skeptical of the recommendation.

    鈥淭here鈥檚 very few reasons to think that it will increase GDP per capita, unless the greater number of people are matched with a greater amount of physical capital, greater amount of infrastructure, greater amount of other factors in production, and that, you know, that鈥檚 not part of that set of recommendations,鈥 he said in an interview with CTVNews.ca in January 2024.

    鈥淚t鈥檚 not that I鈥檓 against immigration; I actually think there鈥檚 a lot of great reasons for more immigrants in this country,鈥 he said. 鈥淚 actually think most of the reasons aren鈥檛 about economics, or aren鈥檛 about GDP per capita.鈥

    A June report from the National Bank of Canada describes NPRs as 鈥渋ncreasingly pivotal鈥 to the country鈥檚 鈥渙ngoing population boom;鈥 one that data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows has put Canada at the top of the G7 for population growth, averaging roughly 1.2 per cent annually since 2014.

    This past quarter, 96 per cent of Canada鈥檚 domestic population growth came from permanent or non-permanent immigration, according to StatCan.

    鈥淔ew (if any) major advanced countries can match what鈥檚 going on in Canada,鈥 the National Bank report read. 鈥淧ermanent immigrants have long been an important flow. But at the margin, (NPRs) are now front and centre.鈥

    MAJOR GROWTH IN WORK AND STUDY PERMITS

    A StatCan review of 2021 census data published this summer found that compared to the rest of the Canadian population, including permanent immigrants, the average NPR was significantly younger, more educated and more likely to participate in the labour force.

    Among NPRs, top countries of origin include India (28.5 per cent), China (10.5 per cent), France (5.1 per cent) and the Philippines (3.6 per cent).

    In recent years, some of the fastest growth among NPR populations has been in work-permit holders, with 1.6 million counted nationwide this quarter, up from roughly 830,000 in late 2021.

    As of the most recent data, the majority of Canada鈥檚 2.5 million NPRs hold work permits, with close to one million permitted to study in the country. These totals include asylum claimants, a majority of whom also hold either a work or study permit, or both.

    The growth comes amid what IRCC describes as record-breaking numbers for new permits, including more than 1.5 million for workers and one million for students processed, finalized or extended this year.

    鈥淭he reality is that Canada needs more people. 鈥 This summer, there were close to one million job vacancies in our economy. It鈥檚 essential to advance policies that address labour shortages,鈥 said then-immigration minister Sean Fraser in a speech in late 2022.

    鈥淲e鈥檙e going to continue to create opportunities for more people to come to Canada to contribute to our economic well-being and to have our system become more compassionate at the same time.鈥

    But as Reitz points out, sudden increases to Canada鈥檚 NPR population are likely to cause problems of their own -- both for Canada鈥檚 existing population and for newcomers.

    鈥淚n the past, when the number of international students was 100,000 or so, a reasonable percentage of those folks could qualify for permanent-resident status. But if you then bring in 800,000 or 900,000, 鈥 you鈥檙e not going to be able to transition an equivalent proportion,鈥 he explained.

    鈥淭he students who are coming, who are thinking that they鈥檙e going to qualify for permanent status, are likely to be very, very disappointed.鈥

    Prospects aren鈥檛 much better in the working world, Reitz says. Historically, immigration initiatives like the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) have sought to fill specific gaps in Canada鈥檚 labour market, but with industry-level needs changing faster than the immigration process brings people into the country to meet them, complications have arisen.

    鈥淎round 2013-2014 鈥 what was being reported was instances in which employers were bringing in immigrants to actually replace Canadians, at lower wages,鈥 Reitz recalled. 鈥淭his was contrary to the express purpose of the (TFWP), to bring in workers where Canadians were not available.鈥

    What can result is a growing proportion of underpaid Canadian and foreign workers alike, with the latter fearing deportation if they don鈥檛 appease the businesses vital to their presence in the country. It鈥檚 a vulnerability to abuse that underlies a variety of the challenges facing those in the system.

    A study published this year by researchers at StatCan, Brock and Western universities found that between 2010 and 2017, the introduction of low-wage TFWP workers correlated with lowered earnings for the lower-skilled, least-paid Canadian employees of a firm, but higher earnings for the higher-skilled, highest-paid Canadians.

    鈥淎 major challenge of administering a (TFWP) is that foreign workers facing poor employment options in their home country have incentives to accept jobs to work in Canada for lower wage rates than a typical Canadian would accept,鈥 the study reads.

    鈥淭his can lead to worse outcomes for Canadians in the labour market if firms internalize this knowledge when making hiring decisions and select TFWs over Canadians.鈥

    SIGNALS OF SLOWING GROWTH ON THE HORIZON

    Amid public criticism abroad, federal officials have signalled possible reductions to NPR growth in the near future.

    In a report published this September, United Nations Special Rapporteur Tomoya Obokata described low-wage and agricultural streams of the TFWP as constituting a 鈥渂reeding ground for contemporary forms of slavery,鈥 adding that he was 鈥減erturbed by reports that the share of workers entering Canada through this programme is sharply on the rise.鈥

    Two months later, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced designed to chart 鈥渁 responsible course for sustainable and stable population growth.鈥

    The plan included a freeze on permanent-resident targets at 500,000 annually in 2025 and 2026, and actions in the new year to 鈥渞ecalibrate the number of temporary resident admissions鈥 to ensure the program runs sustainably.

    In addition, Miller plans to double the minimum financial requirement for international students in 2024, to roughly $20,000 in savings from $10,000, on top of the ability to cover their first-year鈥檚 tuition and travel expenses.

    鈥淲e are revising the cost-of-living threshold so that international students understand the true cost of living here,鈥 Miller said in a December release.

    鈥淭hese long-overdue changes will protect international students from financially vulnerable situations and exploitation.鈥 

    Correction

    A previous version of this article included a quote describing a council of government advisors as unanimously recommending increased immigration in 2017. The article has been updated to reflect comments from one of those advisors, who has since stated he was and is against the recommendation as it was written.

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