A series of potentially damaging political gaffes have had a minimal effect on the opinions of Canadian voters, as Stephen Harper maintains a strong lead over his political rivals, a new poll suggests.
However, the gap between Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and his NDP counterpart Jack Layton appears to have narrowed, according to a Nanos Research Poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
In recent days, Harper has been forced to play damage control on reports that a young woman was kicked out of a campaign event after Conservative staffers found a photo of her on Facebook with Michael Ignatieff.
Ignatieff, meanwhile, had to ditch a Quebec candidate who made a disparaging comment about aboriginals.
Still, while both issues made headlines across the country in the mainstream media, voters don't seem to be immediately reacting. In fact, the Nanos poll suggested that such gaffes are "white noise" in terms of their impact.
After nearly two weeks of campaigning, the polls currently suggest the makeup of the House of Commons after the next election may be very similar to what it was before the writ was dropped.
The critical issue going forward will be next week's leaders' debates, which may be the best chance for any of the parties to have a breakthrough with voters.
In terms of national support, the Conservatives remain within striking distance of a majority government, according to April 6 poll numbers.
- Conservatives: 39.6 per cent
- Liberal: 30.4 per cent
- NDP: 17.2 per cent
- Bloc Quebecois: 8.3 per cent
- Green Party: 3.2 per cent
Those results are nearly identical to poling numbers earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, Layton has repeatedly scored higher than Ignatieff on the Nanos Leadership Index Score, but it appears that the Liberal leader is narrowing that lead. The leadership index combines voter opinions of issues of trust, competence and each leader's vision for Canada.
On April 6, the total leadership scores for the major party leaders were:
- Stephen Harper: 106.2
- Jack Layton: 48.4
- Michael Ignatieff: 45.4
- Gilles Duceppe: 16.4
Harper's lead is partially due to strong numbers in the competence category, which could reflect his image as a steady hand in economic terms.
Meanwhile, the key issues in this election remain health care and the economy. When asked to name, unprompted, what their most important national issue of concern was, almost 25 per cent said health care.
The economy and concern over jobs is also very important for voters (percentage-point change from the April 5 survey is in brackets):
- Health care: 24.8 per cent (+2.2)
- Jobs / Economy: 23.3 per cent (-0.1)
- Education: 8.2 per cent (-0.8)
- High taxes: 5.8 per cent (+0.2)
- Environment: 5.5 per cent (-0.5)
- Unsure: 12.1 per cent (+0.1)
Methodology
- The survey involved 1,200 Canadians 18 years of age and older
- It was conducted on the evenings of April 4, 5 and 6, with 400 respondents interviewed per night
- Results are accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
For the Leadership Score Index, results are compiled using the previous night of polling, rather than the three-day rolling samples, like the other results included in the poll.