It should be no surprise that the oil price slump is a major factor in the economic outlook for major Canadian cities this year.
But a predicts that the price of oil will affect them in dramatically different ways.
Four cities that have boomed in recent years, largely due to the demand for oil, are now going through a bust. Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton and Calgary's economies will feel the effects, bringing big changes for their residents. Edmonton and Calgary will be particularly hard-hit, according to Associate Director of the Centre for Municipal Studies Alan Arcand, who was an author of the report.
"We're expecting the economy to shrink by 0.8 per cent (in Edmonton) this year," he told CTV Edmonton.
"This is the first decline in output since 2009, the previous recession we saw after the global financial crisis."
And Calgary's economy will fall by 1.2 per cent, he said, potentially making it the country's poorest performer.
The oil slump impact will be felt in practically every sector, the report said, putting Calgary and Edmonton into a recession. As oil demand shrinks, so will business investments and the demand for jobs. That will create a ripple effect into retail, manufacturing and real estate, among other sectors.
But the good news is that the recession should be brief, as the report predicts a 2016 rebound in Alberta's economy, albeit a small one at 1.5 per cent.
But it wasn't bad news for every Canadian city, as centres outside the oil patch take advantage of a lower Canadian dollar to increase exports to the U.S.
With low gas prices, consumers won't be spending their money at the gas pumps. Instead, the report predicts consumers will spend more on real estate and at retailers.
The three cities that should see the most economic growth are Halifax, Vancouver and Toronto, as the report predicts manufacturing, exports and construction will bring their gross domestic product growth to 3.1 per cent.
That's good news for Toronto, which for the first time since 1999 will have the fastest growing economy this year.
"It's been a while since Toronto was on top," Arcand said.
