The World Bank reported on Monday that oil prices could be pushed into "uncharted waters" if the violence between Israel and Hamas widens, which could result in increased food prices worldwide.
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook found that while the effects on oil prices should be limited if the conflict doesn't expand, the outlook "would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate."
The attack on Israel by the militant organization Hamas and the ensuing Israel military operation against Hamas have raised fears of a wider Mideast conflict.
And the threat of escalation looms. Israeli tanks and infantry pushed into Gaza over the weekend as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a "second stage" in the war. Hamas officials have called for more regional assistance from allies, including Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The World Bank report simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption.
Effects should be limited if the conflict doesn't widen in a "small disruption" scenario -- as oil prices are expected to decline to an average of US$81 a barrel next year, the World Bank estimates.
But during a "medium disruption" -- equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war -- the global oil supply would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35 per cent.
In a "large disruption" scenario -- comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 -- the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day and prices could go up by 56 per cent to 75 per cent, or US$140 to US$157 a barrel, according to the report.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist, said Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already had disruptive effects on the global economy "that persist to this day."
"If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades -- not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East," Gill said.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices.
"If a severe oil price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries" as a result of Russia's Ukraine invasion, Kose said. "An escalation of the latest conflict would intensify food insecurity, not only within the region but also across the world."
Overall, oil prices have risen about 6 per cent since the start of the conflict. And gold -- a commodity that tends to rise in periods of conflict -- has increased roughly 8 per cent, according to the World Bank.
Some analysts are skeptical that the U.S. would experience massive oil shortages, since U.S. oil production is at an all-time high.
At a Bloomberg event on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration was monitoring the economic consequences of Israel's war against Hamas carefully.
"So far, we have not yet seen much that has global consequences," she said, but if the war spreads "of course there could be more meaningful consequences."
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said between Russia's invasion and the latest violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, "no one can convince me that oil and gas are safe and secure energy choices for countries or consumers."
Procurement Minister and newly appointed Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos is warning the NDP that the dental care program it helped put into place will be in jeopardy if it pulls its support from the governing Liberals.
Kate, the Princess of Wales, made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy and would return to some public duties.
In less than two months, Americans will go to the polls to choose their next president. But the process that translates those millions of votes into one seat in the Oval Office is much more complicated than a straight tally.
Body mass index, a long-time tool used to measure a person's health, may soon be out the door as some health professionals push for a system they say is more accurate.
Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.
A morning cup of coffee may do more than just perk you up, according to new research.
Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets early Sunday across a wider and deeper area of northern Israel, with some landing near the city of Haifa, as Israel launched hundreds of strikes on Lebanon. The sides appeared to be spiraling toward all-out war following months of escalating tensions.
Donald Trump has long pledged to deport millions of people, but he's bringing more specifics to his current bid for the White House: invoking wartime powers, relying on like-minded governors and using the military.
Pasquale Monaco says he鈥檚 debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded 鈥 again 鈥 in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.
The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.
Pasquale Monaco says he鈥檚 debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded 鈥 again 鈥 in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.
Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.
The London Police Service (LPS) is currently investigating a suspicious death in the east end.
One person has died following a shooting in Scarborough late last night.
Donald Trump has long pledged to deport millions of people, but he's bringing more specifics to his current bid for the White House: invoking wartime powers, relying on like-minded governors and using the military.
An explosion in a coal mine in eastern Iran killed at least 33 workers and injured 17 others, officials said Sunday, marking one of the worst mining disasters in the country's history as others remained missing hours after the blast.
In less than two months, Americans will go to the polls to choose their next president. But the process that translates those millions of votes into one seat in the Oval Office is much more complicated than a straight tally.
A two-story building collapsed in the southern Italian province of Naples early Sunday, killing two young siblings and leaving their mother and an older woman trapped, firefighters said.
Kate, the Princess of Wales, made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy and would return to some public duties.
A mass shooting killed four people and wounded 18 others in a popular nightlife area in Birmingham, Alabama, with many of the victims caught in the crossfire, police said early Sunday. No one was immediately arrested, and police asked the public for information.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to be in New York this week for the 78th meeting of the United Nations General Assembly and the Summit of the Future amid increasing geopolitical instability around the world.
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
Procurement Minister and newly appointed Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos is warning the NDP that the dental care program it helped put into place will be in jeopardy if it pulls its support from the governing Liberals.
Body mass index, a long-time tool used to measure a person's health, may soon be out the door as some health professionals push for a system they say is more accurate.
Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.
A morning cup of coffee may do more than just perk you up, according to new research.
If something looks too good to be true, it might be. That's the message from Saskatchewan horticulturists after customers have come into their stores hoping to buy purple apple trees this month.
The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant said Friday that it plans to restart the reactor under a 20-year agreement that calls for tech giant Microsoft to buy the power to supply its data centers with carbon-free energy.
Lebanese authorities on Thursday banned walkie-talkies and pagers from being taken on flights from Beirut airport, the National News Agency reported, after thousands of such devices exploded during a deadly attack on Hezbollah this week.
A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.
Kathryn Crosby, who appeared in such movies as 'The 7th Voyage of Sinbad', 'Anatomy of a Murder,' and 'Operation Mad Ball' before marrying famed singer and Oscar-winning actor Bing Crosby, has died. She was 90.fff
'Saturday Night Live' will have a slew of famous faces to help kick off its historic 50th season when the show returns later this month.
It鈥檚 not easy going up against Canada鈥檚 banking oligopoly, but some are trying.
It is not a great time to be a coffee drinker. In general, coffee bean prices are the highest they've been in more than a decade.
The maker of the popular party game Cards Against Humanity is accusing Elon Musk's SpaceX of trespassing on and damaging a plot of vacant land the company owns in Texas.
More than 2,200 zoo professionals from 23 different countries have gathered in Calgary for the annual Association of Zoos and Aquariums conference.
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Jonathan Aranda homered for the second consecutive game, helping Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 on Saturday.
Kiefer Sherwood spent several nights last spring chasing Quinn Hughes around the ice and generally pestering the Vancouver Canucks.
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General Motors (GM) has issued a recall for 38,000 vehicles for safety risks related to a software glitch, Transport Canada reported in a notice on Wednesday.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has accused Tesla CEO Elon Musk of 'remotely disabling' his Cybertruck, which had been sent to the frontline of Russia's war in Ukraine.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
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Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man鈥檚 best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.
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Volunteers and staff members gathered along Vancouver鈥檚 Stanley Park Seawall Saturday to pick up litter as part of International Coastal Cleanup Day.
A heritage home in Vancouver suffered "extensive damage" in a fire that broke out late Saturday morning, according to firefighters.
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Toronto police have arrested three people and they are looking for two others in connection with an alleged fraud that saw a man and his daughter bilked out of more than $18,000.
A man who was critically injured in an eight-vehicle pileup in Milton Friday has died of his injuries in hospital.
Milla White from Cochrane literally drew her way into a meeting with former boxer and actor Mickey Rourke.
Kate, the Princess of Wales, made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy and would return to some public duties.
The water coming from your taps might be a bit murky Saturday, but Calgary remains on schedule to end all water restrictions on Sunday.
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The Taste of Wellington 2024 wraps up Saturday in Ottawa.
A body has been found in the vicinity where a woman went missing on the Ottawa River near Pembroke, Ont. while kayaking Tuesday night, according to the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP).
Pasquale Monaco says he鈥檚 debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded 鈥 again 鈥 in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.
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Kate, the Princess of Wales, made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy and would return to some public duties.
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A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.
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A herd of dogs paid visit to patients and residents at Riverview Health Centre during an annual event that lifts spirits and wags tails.
While slang may come and go, experts say the phenomenon behind them, which constantly churns out brand-new bon mots, is as old as language itself.
Fire officials are investigating after a fire completely destroyed the community fridge in the Cathedral neighborhood.
The last two months after losing her daughter Bella have been extremely difficult for Kyla Thomson.
Regina police arrested three youths in connection to a bear mace incident at a Regina high school on Friday.
The Cambridge Professional Fire Fighters鈥 Association held their annual Muscular Dystrophy Boot Drive on Saturday.
Protests were held in front of Kitchener City Hall on Friday, both for and against LGBTQ2S+ inclusive education and queer rights in schools.
Police said the pedestrian, a 52-year-old man, was taken to an out-of-region hospital with life-threatening injuries and the driver of the vehicle failed to remain at the scene.
The 75-year-old building, formerly the Waskesiu Chamber of Commerce building, was relocated to the Parks Canada compound on the edge of the townsite.
Saskatchewan RCMP major crimes unit is investigating after a man鈥檚 body was found on Sweetgrass First Nation.
Motors were roaring, and tires were spinning as Saskatoon's biggest names in motocross gathered together for the 50-year anniversary of the club's founding on Saturday.
Ontario鈥檚 police watchdog is investigating after an Ontario Provincial Police officer discharged his firearm at a 36-year-old man in near Moonbeam, Ont., on Friday night.
Procurement Minister and newly appointed Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos is warning the NDP that the dental care program it helped put into place will be in jeopardy if it pulls its support from the governing Liberals.
For some young people, a popular method for getting a quick high is by misusing laughing gas 鈥 and lately, that鈥檚 in the form of nitrous oxide from products sold by the company Galaxy Gas.
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Huron County OPP are investigating a serious single vehicle collision that took place west of Seaforth.
A motorcyclist has died following a serious collision that took place in London鈥檚 south end on Friday afternoon.
The Barrie Skateboard Association (BSA) hosted a unique competition at the City's Skate Park on Saturday to celebrate its 25th anniversary, which showcased the park's importance and the growth of skateboarding in the region.
Police located and arrested a male suspect Saturday evening in relation to an alleged assault incident that occurred earlier this week in Gooderham.
A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.
The Amherstburg Uncommon Festival is living up to its name with the addition of a drone light show 鈥 a first for Essex County.
The Amherstburg Freedom Museum is celebrating a year of festivities in anticipation of its 50th anniversary in 2025.
The St. Clair College golf teams were successful at the Niagara Knights Invitational tournament on Friday.
A man who was found dead behind a curling rink in Nanaimo, B.C., earlier this month was the victim of a homicide, police confirmed.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.
A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.
The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.
Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls 鈥 including one that gave birth to 10 puppies 鈥 from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.
Despite the heavy rain, plenty of muscle turned up for United Way鈥檚 annual Pull the Bus fundraiser in Lethbridge Friday.
Lethbridge County has rescinded its fire restriction as a result of the recent cool, wet weathr.
The Lethbridge Hurricanes kicked off the 2024-25 season on a winning note Friday night, defeating the Edmonton Oil Kings 3-1 in a game played at VisitLethbridge.com Arena.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Following an outbreak of COVID-19 on its continuing care floor and just ahead of the flu season, St. Joseph鈥檚 General Hospital in Elliot Lake has opted to re-introduce a universal masking policy until further notice.
A 26-year-old driver from Surrey, B.C., has been charged with three counts of criminal negligence causing death and bodily harm in a crash that killed two youths in northern Ontario last year.
Newfoundland and Labrador sponsored a minor football team in England, now they鈥檙e about to play one of the biggest clubs in European soccer.
Newfoundland and Labrador's chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
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