The Bank of Canada on Wednesday announced it would once again be holding the overnight interest rate steady at 4.5 per cent for a second time in a row.
The latest consumer price index report showed Canada's inflation rate had slowed to 5.2 per cent, the lowest it's been in over a year. Bond yields in Canada have also fallen, suggesting the market is betting on future interest rate cuts. But even as inflation continues to cool, economists are split on when we can eventually see lower interest rates.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist and director at BMO Capital Markets, says he's not expecting a rate cut until "early next year."
"If we see much more weakness in the economy -- a real recession -- yes, the Bank of Canada almost certainly would swing into action in reverse gears and cut interest rates," he told 麻豆影视 Channel on Wednesday. "But we don't see that. We just see a very mild downturn and growth resuming by the end of this year."
Rather than a sharp recession, Guatieri says BMO is forecasting a "technical downturn in the next couple of quarters," one he expects will be "very mild, very shallow" and over by the end of this year.
"Canada has kind of mixed as to whether we will slip into recession. The general forecast calls for continued growth, very modest growth for the rest of this year, but they're not ruling out the possibility that we could see small declines for a quarter or two this year. So that could meet the technical definition of recession," he said.
Meanwhile, Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins Economics, is projecting the given how fast inflation has been slowing, and how some banks in the U.S. have run into trouble in the last month.
"Most importantly, inflation has come down faster than the Bank had previously anticipated and financial conditions have tightened on the back of banking sector turbulence outside of our borders," he wrote in a research note on Wednesday. "Together, these look to have outweighed the sustained strength in the Canadian economy and labour market."
Canada also continues to have a strong job market. In the last labour report, StatCan reported Canada gained 35,000 jobs while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 per cent, which is near record lows.
"Canadian households continue to benefit from significant government financial supports with a job market at full employment. The combination has reignited consumer spending through the first quarter of this year. With government policy at odds with the central bank, economists from TD wrote in a research note on Thursday.
The economists also said in order for rate cuts to occur, there would need to be "a convincing slackening in the job market and erosion in economic momentum."
"This places the timing close to year-end or early 2024. In other words, just as the rate hike cycle started in Canada and the U.S. in close alignment, so too will the rate cut cycle," they wrote.
When asked about whether rate cuts are on the horizon, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem told reporters on Wednesday the rate cuts the bond markets have been anticipating "don't look like the most likely scenario to us," and didn't rule out a future rate hike to get inflation down to two per cent.
Despite Macklem's attempts to quell speculation in the market that a rate cut is on it way, Derek Holt, head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, says the
"The BoC almost always shows itself to be fully under control of inflation 鈥 even when it obviously isn鈥檛 -- by showing a return to two per cent inflation as if magically within a medium-term horizon. Maybe if you stopped showing that wishful thinking you wouldn鈥檛 have markets pricing rate cuts from restrictive levels above neutral," Holt wrote in a research note on Wednesday.
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Thousands of Spaniards marched in the eastern city of Valencia on Saturday to demand the resignation of the regional president in charge of the emergency response to last week's catastrophic floods that left more than 200 dead and others missing.
Paris police said Sunday that 4,000 officers and 1,600 stadium staff will be deployed for a France-Israel soccer match to ensure security in and around the stadium and on public transportation a week after violence against Israeli fans in Amsterdam.
Gunmen open fired in a bar in central Mexico killing 10 people and injuring seven, a local official said.
Murray Sinclair鈥檚 family members say the late justice and senator has been laid to rest according to his wishes.
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In 1916, Harold Wrong plucked a flower from the fields of Somme, France and tucked it into a letter he mailed home to Toronto. For decades, the type of flower sent remained a mystery.
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Taylor Swift came out on top at the 2024 MTV EMAs on Sunday, walking away with best artist, best U.S. act, best live act and best video for 鈥淔ortnight鈥 (featuring Post Malone).
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Bitcoin on Sunday hit a new record above US$80,000. The world鈥檚 largest cryptocurrency surged in the run-up to Tuesday鈥檚 US presidential election, rose sharply immediately on election night after it became clear Donald Trump would win and has continued rising in the days since his victory.
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A Vancouver designer is making waves in the architectural world with an outdoor modular building created to address the city鈥檚 unrelenting housing crisis.
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A Maui man who lost a part of his leg to a shark bite is now out of the hospital and thanking those who saved his life and helped him recover.
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The union for locked-out port workers in British Columbia says the BC Maritime Employers Association cut off talks in less than an hour Saturday, refusing to budge on a final offer that the union has so far rejected.
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The Southern Alberta Recreation Association is officially announcing the Town of Taber as next year鈥檚 host for the Southern Alberta Summer Games.
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There might not a lot snow just yet, but many southern Albertans are still itching to get outdoors.
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Mayors of the five largest cities in northern Ontario met in North Bay the last two days to discuss a range of critical issues impacting their cities and the region.
Residents in the Sault expressed concerns ranging from vandalism to privacy invasions during recent consultations on the city's plan to install automated speed enforcement cameras.
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