Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 cordial video welcoming members of the incoming U.S. Congress and extolling the virtues of Canada-U.S. trade relations amid fears of a protectionist Trump administration struck the right chord, according to one international trade expert.
Ian Lee, a professor at Carleton University鈥檚 Sprott School of Business, warns the next U.S. president is going to do everything in his power to bolster job growth, and Canada could become 鈥渞oadkill鈥 if it is seen as an obstacle along that path.
He sees the two-minute video address, which was tweeted by Canada鈥檚 U.S. Embassy account on Tuesday, as an important first step in cultivating a more favourable trade stance should the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) be renegotiated.
鈥淭here is no relationship in the entire world quite like the Canada-U.S. relationship,鈥 Trudeau said in the video, which also included Canada鈥檚 U.S. ambassador David MacNaughton. 鈥淲e鈥檝e built an economic relationship that supports jobs in every congressional district. We鈥檙e the largest international customer for goods and services made in the U.S.A.鈥
Trump pledged throughout his campaign to dismantle NAFTA and has since taken aim at major U.S. companies such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. for planned expansions in Mexico. Trudeau for his part has said he is 鈥溾 to talk about existing trade deals if other countries wish to re-open them.
Video from & welcoming
鈥 Embassy of Canada US (@CanEmbUSA)
While many observers contend that Mexico is at the heart of Trump鈥檚 penchant for protectionism, including Trump鈥檚 pick for commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, Lee warns Canada should not assume it will be ignored.
鈥淚 have argued repeatedly that Donald Trump is an existential threat to Canada because our economy is so incredibly dependent on the U.S.,鈥 he told the Business News Network on Wednesday. 鈥淗e鈥檚 going to do everything possible to bring jobs back to the U.S. to benefit Americans. If we are run over in the process, that鈥檚 just unfortunate, we become roadkill.鈥
Canadian exports to the U.S. topped $524 billion in 2015, according to Statistics Canada. Roughly one-third of the country鈥檚 Gross Domestic Product.
Lee says the key to protecting, and improving, our trade standing with our number one trading partner will be strategic concessions on long-protected industries like airlines, telecom, and dairy. That will in turn, he says, garner more favourable terms on larger export sectors like autos and energy.
鈥淲e are going to have to be very strategic in this game of trade chess,鈥 he said. 鈥淪pecific industries where we actually say . . . 鈥榊ou American companies may not come into Canada.鈥 I think they are going to be on the chopping block. It鈥檚 a major irritant to the Americans.鈥