China's recovery from the pandemic and strong demand in India will drive strong economic growth in Asia this year, the Asian Development Bank said in a report issued Tuesday.
The Manila, Philippines-based ADB's latest update forecasts an expansion of 4.8% in this year and the next, up from 4.2% in 2022. It said inflation would likely cool slightly this year and fall further in 2024.
ADB economists said a weekend decision by oil producing nations to cut output, pushing oil prices sharply higher, might reignite inflationary pressures and add to challenges for the region.
The report's analysis was based on the assumption that Brent crude oil, the pricing basis for international trading, would average $88 a barrel this year and $90 a barrel next year.
Oil prices remain below that level, with Brent at $83 on Monday. But they soared about 5% after Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers said they will cut production by 1.15 million barrels per day from May until the end of the year, on top of a reduction announced last October that infuriated the Biden administration.
"It's certainly plausible that oil prices could go even higher and introduce another challenge for the region," ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said in a conference call.
However, growing imports of Russian crude oil, especially by China and India, will likely cushion the impact of rising prices -- such exports to China, India and Turkey more than doubled last year. As of February, a third of Russia's crude exports were going to India and more than a fifth to China.
Park noted that inflation in Asia seems to be driven more by surging demand for services, such as tourism, than for goods.
Another factor that could push prices higher is China's rebound from slow growth after its leaders lifted COVID-19 restrictions that disrupted travel, manufacturing and other business activities. The ADB forecasts that China's economy will grow 5% this year and 4.5% next year, an improvement over last year's 3% growth but slower than its long-term average.
India's economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow at a slower pace of 6.4% this year. That follows a 9.1% annual pace of expansion in 2021 as it rebounded from the worst of the pandemic, and 6.8% last year. But it's one of the fastest expansions for a major regional economy.
Vietnam, meanwhile, is expected to see 6.5% growth this year, down from 8% last year. That's above the average forecast for Southeast Asia, at 4.7% in 2023 and 5% next year. Its central bank has begun cutting interest rates to counter a slowdown in its property sector and weakening exports.
A downturn in demand for computer chips has hurt the outlook for major exporters like Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea, said the report by the regional development lender.
It cited a forecast by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics that sales in semiconductors will fall 4.1% this year from last year but said demand is likely to recover later this year, as is typical in the highly cyclical industry.
Recent worries over the stability of the banking industry after bank failures in the U.S. and Switzerland's rescue of Credit Suisse with a partial takeover by its rival UBS are among other uncertainties facing the global and regional economy, the report noted. The war in Ukraine also might push prices for commodities such as oil, gas and wheat higher, further bedevilling central bank efforts to curb inflation.
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
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Twenty-seven year Â鶹ӰÊÓ reporter and anchor John Vennavally-Rao shares his story of what it was like to have an ostomy bag as part of his health-care battle. 'I’m grateful for what it did to extend my life,' he writes in a personal column for CTVNews.ca.
The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
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The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced that it fired a barrage of missiles at a military base deep inside Israel early Sunday following an Israeli airstrike more than a day earlier that killed at least 37 people, including one of the militant group’s senior leaders as well as women and children.
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The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
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Donald Trump returned to North Carolina on Saturday, stumping in the southern battleground state with direct appeals to women, claiming he would be a better champion for them than U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is vying to become the first female president.
Sheba, a 50-year-old seal at the Cornish Seal Sanctuary in southwest England, has far surpassed the average lifespan for seals and could be the oldest in captivity in the world.
The more Chelsea Walsh talked to the eccentric fellow American who seemed to pop up in every square and cobblestone street of Ukraine's capital, the more she got creeped out.
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Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly says close to 45,000 Canadians are in Lebanon, months after warning there is no guarantee Ottawa can evacuate them if the situation deteriorates further.
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Lebanese authorities on Thursday banned walkie-talkies and pagers from being taken on flights from Beirut airport, the National News Agency reported, after thousands of such devices exploded during a deadly attack on Hezbollah this week.
Kathryn Crosby, who appeared in such movies as 'The 7th Voyage of Sinbad', 'Anatomy of a Murder,' and 'Operation Mad Ball' before marrying famed singer and Oscar-winning actor Bing Crosby, has died. She was 90.fff
'Saturday Night Live' will have a slew of famous faces to help kick off its historic 50th season when the show returns later this month.
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The Canadian Food Inspection Agency says a recall of Nutrabolics brand Feed Me Vegan Real Food Protein & Oats bars due to undeclared milk has been expanded.
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Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has accused Tesla CEO Elon Musk of 'remotely disabling' his Cybertruck, which had been sent to the frontline of Russia's war in Ukraine.
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The Cambridge Professional Fire Fighters’ Association held their annual Muscular Dystrophy Boot Drive on Saturday.
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The Amherstburg Freedom Museum is celebrating a year of festivities in anticipation of its 50th anniversary in 2025.
The St. Clair College golf teams were successful at the Niagara Knights Invitational tournament on Friday.
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A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
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Jim Lester’s farm hopped on the cow-cuddling trend in early August, and his time slots have been pretty well sold out ever since.
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