As Canadians brace for the springtime campaign aimed at luring them to the ballot box in May, CTV.ca takes stock of the issues that might dominate on the hustings.
After two successive minority governments, Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party are at the top of opinion polls, and hope to stay there until voters decide whether it's time for a Tory majority. The three major opposition parties, meanwhile, are banking on the chance voters would rather see them take control of the 308-seat House of Commons.
In the lead-up to the election call, the Conservatives made no secret of the fact they would like to test their mandate on the basis of their handling of the economy, while Liberals lead the opposition charge to the polls hammering the government on issues of ethics and accountability.
Once the writ is dropped and the official campaign officially kicks off, however, the parties hoping to capture voters' attention will have to make sure the issues that matter to them match up with the actual concerns of Canadians.
The question remains, then, what will those issues be? The answer, in politics at least, is a simple one: everything's an issue.
After all, in the broadest strokes, issues are defined according to what individuals deem important.
If we were to consider the basic proposition of having adequate food and shelter as an issue, for example, the political question would be how to go about achieving those ends.
So, on everything from the most private, personal matters to the broader issues that affect society as a whole, politicians eager to attract votes use the campaign as a platform to distinguish themselves from their electoral competition.
But a recent Nanos Research poll conducted for Â鶹ӰÊÓ and The Globe and Mail found that the issues on the minds of Canadians aren't necessarily on the major political parties' agendas.
Among the findings: nearly 30 per cent think health care should be a top priority, compared with 18 per cent who think jobs and the economy were the major issues.
That contrasts with the mood less than a year earlier, when a poll found half of Canadians felt the economy was the top issue compared with 15 per cent who said health care was paramount.
But going into the election run-up, none of the parties have health care at the top of their priorities list.
Accounting vs. Accountability
The ruling Conservatives, for example, are keen to campaign on the merits of their failed budget outlook while their closest competition, the opposition Liberals, are geared up to fight the election on the government's ethical record.
Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research says the two sides are staking claim to territory in which they each believe they hold an advantage.
"The Conservatives will probably use the budget as a launching pad to talk about all the things that would have happened if it had passed," Nanos explained in an interview with Â鶹ӰÊÓ. "They'll be looking to have that as the ballot question when Canadians go into the ballot box."
But the Liberals are trying to push issues of ethics, trust and accountability to the fore.
"If it turns on that, it's going to be much more of a competitive election and it's going to be much more of a rough ride for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives if they're fighting an ethics battle everyday of the campaign," Nanos added.
Indeed, the day after tabling his 2011 budget, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty insisted a campaign built on issues of parliamentary conduct won't fly with voters.
"I don't hear much about that from my constituents," Flaherty said, explaining that he takes his political cues from them.
"They're concerned about jobs, they're concerned about the economy, they're concerned about their families, they're concerned about making sure their kids have a good education and a good future," he said.
"They don't talk to me about, 'Did someone say something in front of some committee somewhere.' That's sort of inside this bubble here in Ottawa."
Simple Choices?
No matter what issues rise to the top, however, the parties vying for votes would like to make the choice as simple as possible.
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, for one, told Â鶹ӰÊÓ he would like to frame the election as a decision between "a blue door and a red door.
"If you go through the blue door you're going to have jets, jails and corporate tax cuts," he told CTV's Canada AM. "If you go through the red door you're going to have a government focused relentlessly on improving our democracy and making sure that families have that nice solid ground under their feet so they can succeed and prosper."
Of course, determining exactly what voters believe is necessary to create that "solid ground" is the perennial political challenge.
"I guess it'll come down to what's more politically entertaining and engaging." -- Nik Nanos, Nanos Research |
Based on recent electoral history, of which we have no shortage considering this will be Canadians' fourth trip to the polls in seven years, this country's key ballot box questions typically include:
The Economy
Touting Canada's leading financial status among countries emerging from the global recession, the Conservatives make no bones of the fact they would like voters to focus on their economic record. While the Tories take credit for Canada's weathering the economic storm, expect the Liberals to counter with claims the surplus inherited from the last Liberal government under Paul Martin kept Canada afloat.
The NDP is pushing for pension reform and other means of ensuring the country's aging population does not fall victim to poverty, and will likely try to drive a wedge between themselves and the Conservatives on the issue of corporate tax cuts that died with the budget.
And, looking ahead to the expiry of three current funding transfer agreements in 2014 -- the Canada Health Transfer, Canada Social Transfer and Equalization Program -- the major parties will all try to stake their own territory ahead of those inevitable negotiations.
All of this happens, don't forget, against a backdrop of rising prices for food and oil, and ongoing financial calamities in such developed economies as Ireland, Portugal and Greece.
Ethics and Accountability
Remember the so-called 'Billion Dollar Boondoggle' that the opposition Tories used to hammer away at the once-formidable majority of Jean Chretien's Liberals? Relentless opposition harping on the sponsorship scandal saw the Liberal's electoral fortunes slip to a minority under then-leader Paul Martin before the Conservatives staked a claim on their own minority government in 2006.
This time round, the Liberals believe they've got enough allegations of scandal and political missteps to turn the tide on Harper's team including: an unprecedented declaration the government is in contempt of Parliament for refusing to disclose enough information about the cost of its law-order-agenda, stealth fighters and corporate tax cuts; the recently announced RCMP probe of a former Harper aide accused of influence peddling and electoral fraud charges against top Conservative Party officials.
Senior ministers have come under fire too, with a variety of allegations including the inappropriate use of government resources for partisan fundraising and a questionable hand-written amendment to an aid group's otherwise already-approved funding request.
The opposition have even tried to enflame voters' passions by questioning the propriety of rebranding the Government of Canada as "the Harper Government."
Foreign Affairs
With Canada's involvement in Afghanistan set to begin winding down, foreign policy had seemed to be slipping off the political radar. But in the context of unrest spreading across the Mideast and North Africa -- including Canada's growing participation in the ongoing military operation against Libya's Moammar Gadhafi -- all the parties will be vying to differentiate themselves without undermining their supporting for the men and women in active duty.
In a taste of things to come, the Liberals and the Conservatives sparred on the question of the Conservative government's sole-source contract for a fleet of new stealth fighter jets long before the writ was dropped. First, on the question of the government's disclosure of details of the deal, and more recently on their exact price tag.
Health Care
Canadians strongly support the country's system of universal health care, but are open to debate on several related issues including the rural access to family doctors, the establishment of private health care providers and supports for those elderly and chronically ill who would like to receive care in their homes.
The Environment
Although environmental issues have played a role in recent elections -- recall then-Liberal leader Stephane Dion's failed efforts to win the 2008 election with a proposal to offset tax cuts with a carbon tax -- ballot box results suggest that few Canadians consider it a top priority.
Nevertheless, the nuclear crisis gripping Japan could shine the spotlight on Canada's energy policy. And, with the still-nascent Green Party promising to field candidates in all 308 ridings, however, expect them to pressure the three major parties to keep the environment file in focus.
Social Issues
Addressing poverty and crime may be two of the most serious social issues on the Canadian political landscape, but the political conversation in recent months suggests that deciding whether or not to publicly finance sports arenas or make the long-form census mandatory better capture the attention of the general public. In that light, it remains to be seen whether the debate that percolated out of the failed budget -- between the Tories' promise to boost the annual guaranteed Income Supplement for seniors and the NDP's insistence the numbers fell far short of what's needed to lift Canada's oldest out of poverty -- will actually heat up as an election issue.
From his perspective, pollster Nik Nanos believes that kind of competition for the public's attention perfectly illustrates the difficulty of predicting exactly what issues will wind up dominating on the campaign trail.
"I guess it'll come down to what's more politically entertaining and engaging," Nanos said.
"The thing is, pocketbook issues drive votes, but they're boring. Ethics and accountability and some of the sensational things that have happened in the past week could garner people's attention. And if they get angry it could be bad news for the Conservatives."