A new poll shows support for the NDP in Ontario is dropping -- possibly as party faithful flock to the Liberals in an effort to stop the Conservatives from getting the majority government they are seeking.
The New Democrats are currently at 14.9 per cent support nationally, a drop of 5 percentage points since the beginning of the election when the NDP had 19.9 per cent support.
The following are some additional national poll results released Friday morning:
- Conservatives: 40.6 per cent
- Liberals: 31.1 per cent
- NDP: 14.9 per cent
- Bloc Quebecois: 8.7 per cent
- Greens: 3.4 per cent
At the beginning of the campaign the NDP had 23 per cent support in Ontario. That number has now dropped to 11.2 per cent in the vote-rich province, according to Nanos Research.
The Conservatives have 45.4 per cent support in Ontario, the Liberals 38.4 per cent, and the Greens have 4 per cent.
Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, said a similar situation occurred in 2004 when then-prime minister Paul Martin called on NDP supporters to lend their vote to the Liberals if they had any hope of preventing a majority government.
Nanos said it will be vital to keep a close eye on the Ontario numbers as the May 2 election approaches.
"It's a significant part of the country in terms of sample and population," he said on CTV's Power Play, adding that Ontario has turned into a race primarily between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Both Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff have already spent a higher proportion of their time in Ontario than anywhere else, and Harper unveiled his party platform there Friday.
Harper and Ignatieff have increasingly been painting the election as a race between two parties and two leaders.
Since the campaign began, Ignatieff has consistently trailed Harper on the Nanos Leadership Index Score. But Ignatieff is now virtually tied with NDP Leader Jack Layton, who had also repeatedly scored higher.
The leadership index combines voter opinions of issues of trust, competence and each leader's vision for Canada.
On April 8, the total leadership scores for the major party leaders were:
- Stephen Harper: 106.2
- Jack Layton: 45.7
- Michael Ignatieff: 45.6
- Gilles Duceppe: 13.3
Harper's lead is partially due to strong numbers in the competence category, which could reflect his image as a steady hand when it comes to the economy.
However, the televised leadership debates are "a critical juncture," when it comes to these rankings, Nanos said.
"Usually, whoever is the prime minister usually gets roughed up in the debate and his or her numbers will go down. But the question is, which of the opposition leaders will move up?" he asked. "That's really going to be the key trend to watch."
Harper has called on voters to support his party with a majority government to avoid the risk of a potential coalition between the Liberals, NDP and Bloc.
Ignatieff has said voters should come in to the Liberals' "big red tent" if they want to stop Harper from getting the majority he is seeking.
Meanwhile, most of those polled by Nanos continued to say that party policies are their key vote driver (53 per cent). After that, 21.4 per cent of those surveyed said the party leaders would determine how they voted. Another 14.3 per cent said their vote was based on their local candidate, and 8.1 per cent said they voted on traditional party lines.
Methodology
- The survey involved 1,200 Canadians 18 years of age and older
- It was conducted on the evenings of April 5, 6 and 7, with 400 respondents interviewed per night
- Results are accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20
For the Leadership Score Index, results are compiled using the previous night of polling, rather than the three-day rolling samples, like the other results included in the poll.
