Canadians are more likely than Americans to think NAFTA has been bad for their country, while the economy and the soaring cost of fuel have become top issues on both sides of the border, according to a new poll.
The bi-national survey was conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, and involved interviews with 1,000 people in Canada and 1,000 in the U.S.
Among Canadians, 44 per cent thought the North American Free Trade Agreement was bad for Canada, while 43 per cent thought the opposite. The results suggest the debate over NAFTA is far from over, 14 years after the deal came into effect.
"I think it's a sleeper issue," Peter Donolo, a partner in The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca. "I think that neither one of the two major parties wants to exploit it, or is in a position to exploit it. The question is whether it could ignite the moribund political standing of the NDP."
NAFTA became a central issue in the U.S. Democratic nomination race, with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton suggesting they would be willing to renegotiate the trade deal.
However, Americans seemed more favourable to NAFTA, with 46 per cent saying it was good for the United States and 36 per cent saying it was bad.
On both sides of the border, the economy was a major concern.
Among Canadians, unemployment issues and the economy was tied with gas prices as the number one issue, at 18 per cent. The environment was just behind at 16 per cent.
Here are the top issues with a percentage-point change from a Jan. 10-13 poll in brackets:
- Economic issues: 18 per cent (+6)
- Gas prices: 18 per cent (+15)
- Environmental issues: 16 per cent (-6)
- Health care: 11 per cent (-1)
- Social/Moral issues: 9 per cent (N/A)
- Foreign policy issues: 6 per cent (-2)
Less than a year ago, gas prices had barely registered at 3 per cent, while the environment had been the top issue at 22 per cent.
"The economy has been growing as an issue of concern for Canadians," said Donolo. We've seen gas prices throughout the summer as a big issue, and we've seen a number of car plant closings."
On the other side of the border, 33 per cent of Americans felt the economy was the top issue facing their country. Gas prices was second at 19 per cent. The environment was near the bottom of the list at just one per cent. Other top issues included:
- Foreign policy issues: 14 per cent
- Health care: 6 per cent
- Social/Moral issues: 6 per cent
- Political issues: 6 per cent
- Energy/Oil issues: 4 per cent
On the whole, Americans felt more pessimistic than Canadians about the future of their country, following two terms with George W. Bush as president and the continuing fallout from the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
In the United States, 71 per cent of respondents thought their country was on the wrong track, while 22 per cent thought it was on the right track.
Canadians were more optimistic, with 40 per cent saying the country was on the right track, compared with 49 per cent who felt the opposite.
Americans were also more likely to be willing to move across the border. The poll suggested that 30 per cent would be inclined to become Canadians citizens. Among Canadians, 25 per cent said they would live and work in the U.S.
Negative perceptions
Nearly half of Canadians felt their perception of the United States had become more negative over the past few years, suggesting more Canadians see themselves as different from their southern neighbours.
However, there appears to be a softening of those feelings, with a decrease in the number of Canadians saying their perceptions had become a lot more negative.
"There was a more burning intensity over it at the time of the Iraq war and the aftermath of 9/11, when those issues were very much front and centre," Donolo told CTV.ca. "As those have kind of eased off a little bit, Canadians have felt less need to be insistent on it, and perhaps have felt less threatened."
A total of 47 per cent felt their attitudes toward the U.S. had become more negative. When asked about their perceptions of their neighbours south of the border, Canadians said their attitudes have become (percentage-point change from 2003 in brackets):
- A lot more positive: 2 per cent (-3)
- More positive: 7 per cent (+1)
- Remained the same: 44 per cent (+10)
- Somewhat more negative: 30 per cent (+2)
- A lot more negative: 17 per cent (-7)
Meanwhile, the vast majority of Americans said their perceptions of Canada had remained the same. U.S. respondents to the survey said they felt:
- A lot more positive: 6 per cent
- More positive: 11 per cent
- Remained the same: 75 per cent
- Somewhat more negative: 4 per cent
- A lot more negative: 1 per cent
Just friendly
The majority of both Canadians and Americans agreed that relations between the countries were friendly, but not close.
When Canadian respondents were asked to describe their relations with the U.S., only a minority said Americans were "like family" (percentage-point change from 2003 in brackets):
- Like family: 7 per cent (+3)
- Best of friends: 13 per cent (+3)
- Friends, but not close: 50 per cent (+5)
- Cordial, but distant: 27 per cent (-5)
- Openly hostile and unfriendly: 1 per cent (-4)
Those results were closely mirrored in America:
- Like family: 7 per cent
- Best of friends: 17 per cent
- Friends, but not close: 48 per cent
- Cordial, but distant: 22 per cent
- Openly hostile and unfriendly: 1 per cent
However, 47 per cent of Canadians said they planned to visit the U.S. in the next 12 months, while 81 per cent of Americans said they had no intention of visiting Canada.
Technical notes
The poll was conducted between June 12-22 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The sample size was 1,000 people in each country
A proportionate random national sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
