A new report on the state of Afghanistan says presidential elections scheduled for a year from now will fail unless the security situation dramatically improves.
The Senlis Council, an international policy think tank with an office in Kabul, has been investigating the security situation on the ground and interviewing Afghans to gather their opinions.
Their latest report "Afghanistan: Decision Point 2008" that was released on Wednesday, paints a mostly grim picture, finding the Taliban has become "entrenched" in some rural and district areas in southern Afghanistan and is even running parallel governments in some places.
"This means if the security situation doesn't change, the presidential elections meant to be held in a year will not be held. There's not sufficient security in southern Afghanistan to carry out the elections," Norine MacDonald, The Senlis Council's president and lead field researcher, told CTV's Canada AM from London.
Ordinary Afghans told Senlis researchers they hesitated to leave the boundaries of their communities over fears of being attacked by the Taliban, and some said "you really couldn't pay them enough to go out of the district to be part of conducting the vote," MacDonald said.
"Bringing democracy to Afghanistan is one of the things we've all been proud of," she added. "And if we don't change the security situation in southern Afghanistan to allow the presidential elections, it's really tantamount to letting the Taliban and al Qaeda take over southern Afghanistan again."
The reality, she said, is that although NATO voted unanimously to go into Afghanistan, only four countries -- Canada, the U.S., U.K. and Holland -- have troops doing work on the ground.
A recent report from a panel led by John Manley said Canada should stay in Afghanistan beyond the February 2009 deadline, but only if other NATO countries commit another 1,000 troops.
MacDonald said that isn't close to the number required.
"We've said the entire troop force needs to be doubled in southern Afghanistan. And it seems the political reality now that we've got to accept is those other NATO countries aren't with us," MacDonald said, noting that it's time to look elsewhere for the necessary troops.
The Senlis Council's position, she said, is that the Afghanistan issue should be taken back to the United Nations' Security Council in hopes of expanding the mission to a "NATO-plus force in southern Afghanistan, and that has to happen in the near future," MacDonald said.
New Democrat Leader Jack Layton called this week for a similar but more extreme shift, telling Canada AM that Canada is involved in a "dead end" mission that can only succeed with the intervention of the UN.
MacDonald said there are signs of progress, however. She has been living in Afghanistan for the past three years and said Afghans are becoming more comfortable with the idea of democracy. Many people the council spoke to could name candidates from different ethnicities who will be running in the coming election -- including three females -- and seemed to be excited about the vote.
"I was really encouraged by the way Afghans have taken on the ideas of democracy. And what we need to do now is provide them with the security so they can go ahead with their elections," she said.
The report found the following:
- The country's ability to hold free and fair elections is a key benchmark of its progress;
- Only a significant ramping-up of indigenous and international forces can start to provide a suitably benign security environment.
- NATO-ISAF is presently overstretched fighting a tenacious insurgency, and is hampered by a lack of political combined will.
- Only the four countries with troops actually fighting in the south -- the U.S., Canada, Netherlands and UK -- are making the necessary contributions.
- The Afghan army remains in a state of transition, and is unable to take a lead without substantial support from international forces.
