OTTAWA - A dramatic prison break in Kandahar and a subsequent resurgence of Taliban activity near the city don't mean that Armageddon is at hand for Canadian troops in Afghanistan, experts say.
But the events of the last few days do underscore the frustrations of a counter-insurgency war in which political symbolism can be as important as military tactics, they add.
"The war in Afghanistan is an endurance battle,'' said Rob Huebert, a political scientist at the University of Calgary's Centre for Strategic and Military Studies.
"In this type of endurance war, psychology and imagery play a very important role. If you can convince your enemy that you are on the rise and they are becoming exhausted, it gives you a tremendous leg up.''
The classic example is the Tet offensive of 1968, in which North Vietnamese forces suffered resounding tactical defeat but scored a propaganda victory by undermining U.S. claims that an American victory was just around the corner.
The resulting psychological blow was widely credited with sapping the political resolve of American leaders -- not to mention the U.S. public -- to continue pouring troops and treasure into the war.
It's an imperfect parallel with the present day in Afghanistan, where the Taliban don't have the same resources that the North Vietnamese possessed four decades ago. But the escape of hundreds of detainees from Kandahar's main prison, followed by a new offensive by Taliban fighters northwest of the city, has some people wondering.
"It certainly challenges the notion that we're making military progress,'' said Steve Staples, president of the Rideau Institute on International Affairs.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative government have responded by reiterating their commitment to stay the course and insisting that the overall strategic outlook remains favourable.
Gen. Rick Hillier, the chief of defence staff, also brushed aside concerns, adopting a business-as-usual approach in a brief encounter with reporters Tuesday.
"We continue to conduct our operations as per normal,'' said Hillier. "We'll learn some lessons from this, we'll help the Afghans learn some lessons.''
Staples suggested, however, that one of the Canadian government's chief selling points for the mission -- the claim that civilian reconstruction and nation-building are as important as the purely military objectives -- has been dealt a body blow.
"There can't be any aid and development while the fighting is going on (and) thousands of families are fleeing the area,'' said Staples. "These developments are alarming on several fronts.''
Others were less pessimistic, contending that the Taliban lack the strategic reach to follow up on any short-term gains they may have made.
The prison break, though spectacular, was not a major setback to the overall mission, said Thomas Adams, a security studies expert with the Canadian International Council.
He also counselled against over-reaction to the news that Taliban fighters have returned to the area northwest of Kandahar, a traditional stronghold from which they had been driven by NATO troops.
The villages they've re-occupied will at best serve as a temporary base of operations, predicted Adams.
"They will be deflated, those places will be taken back. There's no way they can keep pushing, reach Kandahar, take it over and expel NATO forces. Its just not going to happen.''
Huebert agreed that a purely military victory for the Taliban remains a long shot. But he cautioned that the real goal of any guerrilla movement is simply to wear down occupying forces.
The main danger, he said, is that politicians in some NATO countries -- including the Netherlands and Germany as well as Canada -- will grow weary of the fight, especially if body counts among their troops start to mount.
"If the Taliban were able to achieve some large-scale casualty incidents, I think you could see a substantial weakening of will among the (NATO) political leadership.''
